China may have the world’s single biggest steelmaker by 2015 if the government succeeds in its policy of merging smaller producers into bigger businesses, the chief executive of Arcelor, Guy Dolle, said in an interview.

The nation, producer of a third of the world’s steel, introduced an industry plan in July that aims to have two steelmakers each with a capacity of more than 30 million tons a year by 2010 to compete with rivals such as Mittal Steel and Arcelor, currently the globe’s two biggest producers. China has more than 260 steelmakers today.

“You could have a Chinese steel company in the range of 150 million tons in 10 years time,” Mr. Dolle said in Seoul on Saturday.

Mittal Steel, based in Rotterdam, plans to increase output to an annual 100 million tons from 70 million tons in coming years, partly through acquisitions. The industry is poised to shrink to three or four major global producers, with the top 10 accounting for at least 40% of the market, the chairman and chief executive of Mittal Steel, Lakshmi Mittal, said in June.

The company and Luxembourg based Arcelor, the second-biggest producer, now own less than 15% of steelmaking capacity worldwide. By contrast, the three biggest iron ore exporters, Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, Rio Tinto Group, and BHP Billiton account for 73% of seaborne supply. Prices of iron ore and coal, steelmaking ingredients, have risen to records on Chinese demand.

China, which has doubled output in the last four years, may produce 400 million to 450 million tons of steel in 10 years time, Mr. Dolle said in the interview.

This would represent a slowing in the current pace of growth as the country reins in expansion and closes smaller mills as part of its industry plan.

China’s crude steel output will probably rise 25% this year, or the fastest pace in at least nine years, to reach 340 million metric tons in 2005, according to the median forecast from five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Output in 2006 may increase as much as 15% to 390 million tons, according to analysts including Shanghai-based Lance He from UBS AG.

“We’ve heard from China’s industry that in the next five years they want to see the top 10 companies producing 50%,”of the steel, Mr. Mittal said. “I believe it will happen.”

Mittal and Arcelor are seeking a foothold in China’s expanding market by providing expertise and high-tech steel products in partnerships with local steelmakers. China’s government bans overseas producers “in principle” from taking controlling stakes in mills, its planning agency said on July 20.

This hasn’t stopped Mittal from completing the purchase of a 37% stake in China’s Hunan Valin Steel Tube & Wire, its first step into the Asian nation, for $338 million.

“This gives us a new platform to further grow in China,” Mr. Mittal said. “Progressively they will allow foreigners to participate in a larger way than we are today.”

Arcelor, meanwhile, may buy a majority stake in China’s Laiwu Steel, China’s second-largest maker of beams used in construction. Mr. Dolle says negotiations with regional authorities and central government may take months.

“China will be the most important steel market in the next decade,” Mr. Dolle said Saturday. “It’s important to us as a world leader to be active in China.”