China’s Stock Market: A Life and Death Ride

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

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China has had its hands full lately with tornados, floods, and earthquakes, and its stock market recently suffered its own calamity, plummeting 50% between November and its March lows before rebounding some 20% in the past month.

“Playing the Chinese stock market is like playing Russian roulette,” a Los Angeles money manager, Arnold Silver of A. Silver Associates, says. “You can get killed at any moment, but the problem is you’ve got to be there because you can’t ignore the enormous growth potential.”

Tony Sagami, the editor of Asia Stock Alert, a Bigfork, Mont., newsletter that doggedly tracks the Asian markets, echoes his thinking. “China is like a volatile tech stock, where 20% to 40% corrections happen all the time,” he says. “That’s the entry fee for playing the stock game there. It’s for big boys only. Investors with a little old ladies’ mentality should stick to utilities.”

The no. 1 strategy for making money over the next decade, Mr. Sagami says, is “to get long what the Chinese are buying, such as oil, food, gold, Louis Vuitton bags, vacations to Macau, and sea eel pizzas.”

With this in mind, he expects the Chinese economy — the fastest-growing in the world — to continue to sizzle, sparked by what he refers to as its surging population of Chuppies, or Chinese yuppies. He says there are now about 100 million of them. “They’re well educated, have disposable income you wouldn’t believe, and because of China’s one-child policy, they’re called the generation of Little Emperors.”

Mr. Sagami, who makes frequent trips to Asia, notes that “when I go to China, I see more Louis Vuitton bags in Beijing than I do in Boston. I also see more people sipping Starbucks coffees in Shanghai than I do in Seattle. They love everything Western and they are spending their money like crazy to get those things.”

To capitalize on China’s economic explosion, Mr. Sagami has created a “magnificent seven” — a group of seven Chinese and American companies that have substantial growth prospects in China and whose stocks he rates as “dirt cheap” because of the recent correction.

These seven stocks, viewed as potential 20% to 50% gainers over the next 12 to 18 months, are traded on either the Hong Kong or American stock exchanges:

oNew Oriental Education, which teaches English as a second language and helps prepare students to pass college entrance exams for colleges in both America and China.

oChina Mobile, the world’s largest cell phone company, which has 390 million subscribers. Of note is the fact that it has only punctured a piece of their market.

oLas Vegas Sands, which is best known for its Venetian casino resort in Las Vegas. What excites Mr. Sagami is the company’s two casinos in Macau, which generate more than 50% of its annual revenues.

oMindray Medical, a maker of devices that, among other things, monitor blood pressure and heart rate.

oChina Communications Construction, a major player in the country’s building boom. It’s so large, in fact, that 70% of the world’s construction cranes are said to be currently located on Chinese soil.

oE-House, viewed as the Century 21 of China, is rated another major beneficiary of the country’s building boom.

oChina BAK Battery, which makes portable batteries for electric products, such as cell phones, laptops, iPods, and MP3 players. The company is also rated by Mr. Sagami as a stealth energy play because he says he believes it has a shot at landing a Big-3 battery contract in the hybrid car market.

In the original version of “The Magnificent Seven,” a group of seven gunfighters is hired to protect a Mexican village against bandits. They succeeded, but it’s worth reminding investors that many died in the process.

dandordan@aol.com


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