Coca-Cola Lowers Earnings Targets

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With sluggish sales expected to continue in several key markets, Coca-Cola Company’s chairman and chief executive, E. Neville Isdell, yesterday lowered the company’s long-term earnings and volume targets.


Mr. Isdell also vowed to take the steps needed to restore the company’s profitability and return to “iconic” Coca-Cola advertising.


The world’s largest soft-drink company said it expected annual earnings per share growth in the high single-digits and annual volume growth between 3% and 4% over the long term. The Atlanta company’s prior targets called for 11% to 12% earnings-per-share growth and 5% to 6% volume growth.


Operating income, which some industry analysts watch closely, is expected to rise between 6% and 8% a year.


The lowered earnings targets were issued ahead of a long-awaited investor meeting in New York yesterday. Mr. Isdell, who joined the company in June, has taken the last several months to review Coke’s business before committing to the earnings and volume targets.


Ahead of the meeting, industry analysts had widely speculated the company would reduce its annual growth targets, as Coke has been struggling with weak sales in key markets such as North America and Europe. The projections issued by the company yesterday were in line with these expectations, but some expect the goals could still be a challenge.


“As we have assessed our future growth opportunities, we believe we have outlined realistic and achievable financial growth targets over time,” Mr. Isdell said in a written statement. “We believe that once we take the necessary steps to get back on our path to growth, our company will be well positioned to reach these targets.”


Part of Mr. Isdell’s strategy is to increase its annual spending on marketing and on developing new products by $350 million to $400 million beginning in 2005.


Some of the spending will be dedicated to supporting the company’s core brands such as Coca-Cola Classic, Sprite, and Fanta. In addition, Coke will throw more support toward developing its product pipeline and on programs to improve its ability to implement its strategy and develop its bench strength.


Speaking with analysts yesterday, Mr. Isdell admitted Coke had missed opportunities in the past to move into high growth soft-drink categories such as bottled water and energy drinks. Growth in these categories has been fueled by the emerging health and wellness trends, which Coke was also slow to pick up on and develop, according to Mr. Isdell.


Although the company didn’t share many details, Coke said it plans to introduce a number of new products next year. According to Mr. Isdell, not all of the products will be blockbusters.


“Failure is fine as long as we are taking the right chances,” Mr. Isdell said.


Much of Coke’s increased investment will be targeted to markets outside of America. Although America is Coke’s largest market, the company makes about 80% of its profits outside of it. Anticipating robust sales growth in countries such as China, Brazil, Russia, and India, that percentage is expected to grow to about 95% over the long term, according to Mr. Isdell.


Coke is “playing to its strengths” by focusing on markets outside America, said an analyst at Fitch Ratings, Gian Laguzza. He doesn’t expect additional marketing spending in America to yield as much of a return as it can in other markets.


However, the company’s plan to reinvigorate the growth of carbonated soft drinks is “less realistic,” Mr. Laguzza said.


In the near term, Coke reiterated its 2004 earnings forecast, which it provided in September, but did not give an estimate for 2005.


The 2004 estimate projects earnings in the range of $1.88 to $1.90 a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call estimate the company will earn $1.99 a share. However, the analyst estimate excludes a charge posted in the third quarter.


In the future, Coke will return to its policy of not providing quarterly forecasts.


Coke expects sales to continue to be weak next year in some key markets such as North America, Germany, and the Philippines. As a result, the company said its long-term growth rate targets won’t apply to 2005.


The dollar’s weakness against other currencies is expected to have a “slightly positive” impact on Coke’s results next year. However, the company may opt to reinvest the benefits from currency translation back into its business.


Based on a slower-than-expected rebound in some key markets, J.P. Morgan analyst John Faucher cut his estimate for 2005 to $2.04 a share from $2.10 a share.


In a research note, Mr. Faucher said the high end of Coke’s range of estimates for volume and operating profit growth seem “slightly aggressive.”


Mr. Faucher doesn’t own Coke shares, but a member of his research team does. J.P. Morgan also has an investment-banking relationship with the company.


Coke shares were down 21 cents, or 0.5%, to $40.96 on volume of 18.6 million shares.


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