Consumer Confidence Drops Again

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The New York Sun

Continued job worries resulted in an unexpected decline in consumer confidence in September, the second consecutive monthly dip, a New York based private research group said yesterday.


The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 96.8 from a revised reading of 98.7 in August, according to The Conference Board. Analysts had expected a reading of 99.5.


“Soft labor market conditions have clearly taken a toll on consumer confidence,” said Lynn Franco, director of the organization’s Consumer Research Center. “Still, expectations for the next six months are virtually unchanged from August.”


Economists closely track consumers’ outlook about the economy and employment because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all American economic activity.


The confidence index, which was as high as 144.7 in May 2000 when the job market was flourishing, has been volatile since the economy emerged from recession in November 2001. It fell to 64.4 in March 2003 after the American-led invasion of Iraq but then began what had been a gradual but inconsistent rise as the job market recovery has remained tenuous, according to Franco. It was 105.7 in July.


The Present Situation Index, one component of the consumer confidence reading, fell to 95.5 from 100.7 in August. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook over the next six months, edged up to 97.6 from 97.3 last month.


The Conference Board’s indexes are derived from responses received through September 20 to a survey mailed to 5,000 households in a consumer research panel. The figures released yesterday include responses from at least 2,500 households. The figures for August were revised after all the surveys for that month were tabulated.


The period coincided with the volatile rise of oil prices, which topped the psychological milestone of $50 per barrel yesterday, and the recent hurricanes that devastated Florida. The hurricanes did not have an effect on the confidence numbers, but could erode consumer sentiment later as the economic impact is digested in the region, Ms. Franco said.


And while rising oil prices do not directly hurt consumer confidence, it erodes corporate profits, which makes business become more conservative in hiring, said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, N.C.


Still, while Mr. Vitner said that the consumer confidence readings in September were “disappointing, they were not that weak.” He noted that the main index is still close to a reading of 100, which is the benchmark for “normal economic times.”


“It’s not that things are bad. They’re just not great,” said Mr. Vitner. “We’re in an in-between mode.”


Mr. Vitner and other economists are awaiting September job figures from the Labor Department, due out October 8. Analysts are expecting the nation’s nonfarm payrolls to grow by 153,000. Job growth slowed dramatically in July – a meager 32,000 jobs were added – but rebounded in August, when the economy added 144,000 jobs.


Historically, consumers’ outlook on jobs is a good barometer of future consumer spending, according to Sung Won Sohn, economist at Wells Fargo & Co. That’s good news since the survey showed that participants anticipating more jobs to become available in the next six months rose to 17.7% from 16.3%. And the proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to improve in the months ahead edged up to 20% from 19.7% last month. Those expecting fewer jobs increased to 16.1% from 15.1%.


Consumers’ assessment of overall present-day conditions was mixed. Those saying that business conditions are “good” edged up to 23.6% from 23%. Those claiming conditions are “bad” remained flat at 20.3%, compared to 20.2% last month. The job situation was less favorable than in August. Consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” declined to 16.8% from 18.4%. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” rose to 28.3% from 26.0% in August.


In trading yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 88.86 points, or 0.9%, to 10,077.40. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index increased 6.54 points, or 0.6%, to 1,110.06. The Nasdaq composite index rose 9.99 points, or 0.5%, to 1,869.87.


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