The Crazies May Not Be So Crazy
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

While some may find it hard to believe, not every reader of this column is a fan. Take Robert Scharf, who objects to the tone of several recent columns and some people I interview.
“Doctor Death, the Grim Reaper, and now some nut who tells you the Dow Jones Industrials are on their way to 8,500. Why give editorial space to such crazies?” he inquires in an e-mail message. “Why not go to a psychiatric hospital. I’m sure you could find some guy in a straitjacket there who will tell you the Dow is going to 1,000. You ought to come back from outer space, stop trying to scare people and interview someone sane for a change who thinks the Dow has a shot at 15,000 this year. I would also like to know if you share the view of your crazies that the end of the world is at hand.”
Okay, first to those bears, or crazies as you call them. Doctor Death and the Grim Reaper are names some Wall Street pros have given to investment adviser Martin Weiss, who runs Weiss Research of Jupiter, Fla., and has a Dow target of 11,000. The fellow who sees a possible 8,500 Dow — that’s in 2010 — is Charles Allmon, publisher of the Growth Stock Outlook newsletter in Bethesda, Md. Both have achieved noteworthy success in their fields and are periodically quoted in major financial publications.
You may not agree with them, but their cases cannot be simply written off as the thinking of a couple of loonies. Essentially, both believe the subprime mortgage and housing crises will get progressively worse, more so than most people expect. Likewise, both feel the Federal Reserve’s recent injection of liquidity into the system will be insufficient to resolve the current problems. They also worry about the country’s gigantic debt buildup, which they feel will lead to sharply higher bankruptcies and home foreclosures. Another of their worries is the danger of a consumer spending slowdown, which is already under way.
Guess what? I also found a bull who thinks the Dow could climb to15,000, and maybe a fair amount higher, before year-end. That assumes the Fed handles the credit crisis and the economy does well, which is what our bull, liquidity tracker Charles Biderman, expects. He’s the CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research of Santa Rosa, Calif., whose clients include many of the country’s top hedge funds.
“The bears are all wet because the economy is not going down the toilet,” he says. Likewise, Mr. Biderman views the Fed’s discount rate cut as a strong market positive because it signals a clear intent by the central bank to ensure the system remains afloat with sufficient liquidity, which should ease credit worries.
“I don’t know if we’ve seen the market lows, but I would definitely be a buyer here,” he said. In fact, that’s precisely what he’s doing with his personal account, having recently bought Toll Brothers, Salesforce.com, and Nordstrom. “I’m losing a little money on them, but that’s okay because they’re all going higher,” he said.
Mr. Biderman cites a number of bullish liquidity arguments to support his forecast of higher stock prices. Chief among them, stock buybacks are running at record levels, $91 billion in the past four weeks. Likewise, insider selling has dropped sharply to about $250 million a day over the past few weeks from $800 million a day year to date through July. He also points to very few new offerings and rapid 6% to 7% year-over-year growth in tax collections.
Mr. Biderman disputes rising Wall Street talk that the merger and acquisitions boom — this year’s chief market catalyst — is now dead because of substantial credit tightening. Once volatility subsides in the credit markets, which he says will be sooner than later, M&A activity should enjoy a snazzy rebound, Mr. Biderman says. Indicative of ongoing M&A interest, he notes, was the brisk deal pace in July, which saw more than 40 takeovers of publicly owned companies, the most ever in one month.
Next, my view of the market. I have often heard the expression “Don’t fight the Fed” and I believe it. I figure the Fed has no choice but to loosen the credit reins to bail out the slumping housing industry and ensure the subprime mortgage mess doesn’t trigger a major credit crisis. If I’m right about easier money for a while, I’ve got to believe the market, despite the corresponding threat of higher inflation, will react positively and head higher this year.
Everyone hedges — including me. America has $10 trillion of mortgage debt, 13%, or $1.3 trillion, of which is subprime. Some experts pooh-pooh the danger, telling me only 3% is at risk. How do they know it’s only 3%? The answer is invariably the same: They really can’t be sure. How can that response not scare you? It does me.