Feverish talk of a national housing bubble worries a lot of folks, among them Sid Abrams, who e-mailed me: “Hello Dan, I own a couple of home-building stocks, Centex and Toll Brothers, which have made me a lot of money, but I am concerned about all the bubble talk I have been reading about. In one of your recent columns, you knocked down the idea of a bubble in Manhattan real estate. I wonder if you feel the same way about a national bubble. How real is such talk?”

It’s as real as Santa Claus, according to a 20-page housing report just issued by Wachovia Securities, whose author, senior economist Mark Vitner, concludes, “There is no national housing bubble to burst, so such worries are misguided.”

In an interview, the economist insisted the bubble story is greatly exaggerated. He contends the real reason prices are rising so fast – up an average 12.5% over the past year, according to the latest federal data – is very simple: Rising demand is exceeding supply.

In his analysis, Mr. Vitner acknowledges signs of an overheated housing market. In this context, he points to the record level of new home sales, spiraling prices, rapid home appreciation in a growing number of markets, and a good deal of speculative fever, such as day trading in condominiums and even homes, notably in San Diego and Florida.

But still, he thinks the risk of a bubble is minimal. As for the no.1 argument of the housing bears – rising interest rates – Mr. Vitner reckoned that any further rate boosts through the remainder of the year would likely coincide with stronger job and income growth, which, he contends, should offset much of the impact of rising mortgage rates.

Yet other factors that argue against a bubble are:

* Increased availability of mortgage credit at near generational low rates.

* A generally improving economy.

* Positive demographics (a reference primarily to baby boomers born between 1945 and 1965 who are trading up to more expensive homes and buying vacation homes).

* A rapidly growing population of potential homeowners (through immigration and the projected birth of 57 million Americans over the next 20 years).

* Growing zoning and land constraints that limit new home construction in many areas. Among them are a growing anti-development movement in many of the nation’s fastest-growing areas, tighter municipal budgets, which are restricting expansion to public infrastructure, and the growing role of publicly traded builders, which has led to much less speculative construction than in past building cycles.

* Rising property taxes and the need to make infrastructure improvements, such as roads and sewers (part of whose costs have to be borne by the homeowners), which make home purchases for many prospective buyers prohibitive in numerous areas.

As a result, Mr. Vitner figures that while this year’s brisk home sales may slow a bit, they should still remain near their recent highs (a good sign for home builders), with 2005 sales of new homes running 1.25 million units and sales of existing homes totaling around 6.1 million. It all sounds great, especially if you’re a homeowner, but let me toss in a bit of skepticism. With home ownership already running at a record 69% (meaning nearly seven out of every 10 people own their own home), $1 million-plus homes more commonplace than your local barbershop, and rapid home appreciation raising fewer red flags among lenders (leading to overly buoyant appraisals), you’ve got to legitimately wonder how much longer this housing euphoria can go on. Likewise, some real estate brokers tell me they’re running into growing price resistance, and it’s taking somewhat longer than it did a few months ago to sell an apartment.

Mr. Vitner’s response: “With supply lagging demand, the game goes on.”