Doubting Soros on China
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The two-day, 13.5% surge in the Chinese stock market last week was reminiscent of a moon shot. To put the spectacular rise in perspective, the Dow would have to jump about 1,800 points to equal that gain.
It’s a noteworthy sign that the enticing, go-go Chinese market — a reflection of the planet’s speediest economic grower — has recaptured its lost momentum and is ready to roar again following a bloody 45% decline from its recent high, some international investment trackers say.
Maybe so, but the global money manager George Soros has his trepidations, declaring in a recent TV interview that China “is a bubble waiting to burst.” Fears of a slowdown from its double-digit economic growth and the jump in inflation to 8.3%, about double last year’s rate, also worry some China watchers.
The London money manager Marcus Raab disagrees with the worriers. “I can appreciate the anger over China’s crackdown on antigovernment protesters in Tibet and its human rights abuses, and I’m angry, too,” he says. “But if the name of the investment game is to make money, which it is, you have to own China because you go with growth and no economy is growing faster.”
Mr. Raab, a principal of Raab Associates, concedes the Chinese market is rife with inflated stock values and is not without risk. He hastened to add, though, that he “would say the same thing about any market in the world,” and went on to note that prior to the recent gain, “it has been a slow investment boat to China, but I would look for that boat to pick up real speed.” In other words, he’s suggesting more moon shots ahead in China.
A tracker of international markets at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Larry Edelson, is also gung ho about what he considers the world’s most exciting market. His advice to clients: “Buy the heck out of China and I wouldn’t waste another minute.”
He observes that Chinese investors are pouring money into new construction, factories, and businesses. At the same time, Chinese consumers are snapping up goods like crazy, retail sales are soaring, loan growth at Chinese banks is on fire, and even rural areas of China are exploding with economic growth.
Against this backdrop, he points to a slew of recent economic stats:
* China’s gross domestic product surged 11.9% in 2007, the fastest pace in 13 years.
* China’s 14 publicly owned banks bolstered last year’s profits by an average 70%.
* Sichuan Province reported a 40.1% rise in fiscal 2007 revenues, while Inner Mongolia’s jumped 43.4%.
* As a whole, China’s western provinces are seeing their gross domestic product grow at an impressive 13.9%.
* China’s manufacturing sector saw its purchasing managers’ index rise to 58.4 in March, an extremely bullish economic sign, the highest level since April 2007.
* Crude oil imports in February surged 18.1%, to 3.6 million barrels a day, while that month’s diesel imports soared tenfold compared to a year ago.
* China’s retail sales rose 20.2% in both January and February versus the same two months last year. This includes a 33.8% increase in automobile spending. (More than 500,000 new autos are hitting the streets of China every month.)
* China’s trade surplus expanded by $41 billion in the first quarter, up 40% from the previous year.
Aside from a galloping economy, Mr. Edelson says the Chinese stock market should benefit from improving technical signs that suggest the market downtrend has been broken.
His favorite Chinese play is an exchange-traded fund, the iShares FTSE/Xinhau China 25 Index, which invests at least 90% of its assets in the country’s top companies. It trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol FXI.
Mr. Edelson also favors four individual blue chips, each of which is flashing a buy signal and rates a potential 50% gainer during the next 12 months. They are China Petroleum & Chemical, Asia’s largest oil refiner; CNOOC Ltd., another oil giant that is able to produce oil at a paltry $16.37 a barrel; China Unicom, the country’s second-largest cell phone service provider (it’s intent on being no.1), and Huaneng Power International, one of China’s top power utilities.
What about the China-Tibet crisis? Mr. Edelson views it as a wild card that could do some damage to the Chinese economy, but he says he believes the matter will be resolved amicably. “Beijing,” he says, “is not about to have a total public relations disaster on its hands or another Tiananmen Square incident — not with the August Olympics looming large.”
He may be right. China recently said it would meet with envoys of the Dalai Lama to ease resentment over Tibet.
dandordan@aol.com