Go figure. One of the city ‘s brainiest economic minds, Lakshman Achuthan, tells me “all signs are go for the economy” — a sunny outlook that seemed reinforced by May’s solid new jobs numbers.

Still, the economic fog hasn’t yet lifted. Just click on the TV or turn to the financial pages of your newspaper and you’ll find this year’s economic sightings are all over the lot.

While the overriding view is that we’re in for a soft landing, with gross domestic product growth pegged at 2% to 2.5%, the skeptics are numerous and evident in a host of conflicting outlooks that include the following forecasts:

• Don’t rule out a recession (two quarters in a row of declining GDP), chiefly because the worst of the housing downturn has yet to play out. That will produce a flurry of layoffs and cause consumers to slash their spending.

• This year’s economy will beat expectations, with GDP growth of 3% or more, largely due to a healthy rebound in housing, increased business spending, an improving jobs picture, and strong global growth.

• Look for a hard landing amid a faltering economy, with GDP growth of just 1.5% to 2%.

• On-trend GDP growth of 2.5% to 3%, perhaps higher, is this year’s most probable economic course.

• The burden of too much debt will finally catch up with consumer. Factor in increased housing weakness and an eventual downturn in employment, and you could see paltry GDP growth of just 1% to 1.5%.

Confused? Me, too. With every economist convinced they ‘re right, who knows what to believe? For some clarity, I rang up Mr. Achuthan, a managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and a frequent face on TV when a network is hungry for an economic expert.

ECRI is a New York economic consulting firm that boasts a better than average track record in flushing out tomorrow’s economic trends. Most noteworthy, it correctly called the past three recessions. Furthermore, in last year’s third quarter, ECRI accurately predicted a slowing economy, which came to pass as GDP growth shrank to 0.6% during this year’s first quarter following growth of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of last year and 3.2% for all of 2006.

So how does ECRI see 2007?

“We’re in a Goldilocks economy with just a few blemishes that needed to be eliminated,” Mr. Achuthan says. Those blemishes: the home price downturn, industrial slowdown, and weak business spending.

“If you look at four major economic ingredients — employment, sales, income, and production — it says the economic bears are wrong,” Mr. Achuthan observes. “The sky isn’t falling, and I think the economy will surprise us all on the upside.”

In shaping its economic model, ECRI relies on a slew of indicators, chief among them the latest trends in home prices, the manufacturing sector, the services arena, construction, and the job market. Its latest analyses indicate that as the year progresses, the economy will firm and display increased strength.

“We see no recession risks,” Mr. Achuthan says, which means, he notes, “there is no compelling reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year and we can’t imagine them doing it.” Inflationary pressures, he points out, are managing to ease a little.

What about the worrisome comment from a former Fed chief, Alan Greenspan, that there is a notable risk of a recession?

“He’s wrong,” Mr. Achuthan says. “As I told you, all signs are go for the economy, not stop.”

What about the housing downturn? That’s close to being over, Mr. Achuthan says, observing that ECRI’s housing index suggests that the downturn in home prices “will turn into an upturn later this year.” He regards such a forecast as “a pretty big deal,” given, he says, the subprime failures, large housing inventories, and the unwillingness of the major homebuilders to predict an upswing.

He acknowledges that home prices may struggle for another quarter or two as homebuilders are forced to cut prices to lower inventories. But with a stable job market and low interest rates, Mr. Achuthan figures it’s only a matter of time before excess inventories, including also those of autos and PCs, are cleaned out.

What about the weakness in the manufacturing sector? The services sector is going gangbusters and should more than offset any weakness in manufacturing and construction, Mr. Achuthan replies. It’s worth keeping in mind, he adds, that 83% of all American jobs come from the services sector.

What does it all mean as far as GDP growth goes? Mr. Achuthan says he would be surprised if the current quarter’s growth isn’t above 2%. And for the second half, he expects something close to on-trend growth of 2.5% to 3%.

His bottom line: When the traffic light turns green, you go. The economic traffic light, he suggests, is definitely green.

dandordan@aol.com