Energy Stocks: Beyond the Usual Suspects

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Here are a half-dozen prospects from a Wall Street veteran for making what he sees as a sizable buck in the torrid energy market. The key is his picks are not the usual suspects, many of which have already ballooned this year.


When most investors think energy stocks – and most of them are doing just that with oil over $50 a barrel and $20 a barrel oil widely viewed as history – they invariably turn to the larger oil production and oil services companies, such as ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil, Schlumberger, and Baker-Hughes.


Not so investment advisor and money manager Stephen Leeb of Leek Capital Management, who believes investors should take a hard look at the shares of energy alternatives – essentially money-making offshoots of black gold, which he sees producing gains running as high as roughly 25% to nearly 100%.


His picks, six stocks, a number of which have done well this year, are rated the best alternatives for catching a ride on oil’s shirttails, notably in such areas as liquefied natural gas, nuclear energy, wind, tar sands, and energy efficiency.


In other words, he suggests investors move beyond the usual suspects, such as the well-known oil producing and oil service companies, which are already up an average 15% to 30% over the past six months. His thrust here is that the most popular energy plays may not necessarily be the smartest plays.


Here’s a rundown of his six energy alternatives, his target prices, and why he thinks they should be bought.


Kicking off with Toyota Motor ($75.01), his favorite conservation play and which he expects to become the Wal-Mart of the world’s auto industry, Mr. Leeb notes that China, India, and Russia have all sustained double-digit growth in automobiles; likewise, that cars are among the products most leveraged to growth in emerging economies. With its exceptional finances – it’s one of the few worldwide companies with a triple-A credit rating – and extraordinary manufacturing capabilities, Toyota, observes Mr. Leeb, is the carmaker best positioned to provide the huge number of fuel-efficient cars that these and other countries will demand.


Next is Exelon ($39.86), the nation’s largest nuclear utility. With natural gas prices climbing and a growing demand for electricity, even rising uranium prices will leave it in an enviable position. Higher margins, higher usage, and possibly, some potential for expansion could lead to double-digit growth. With Wall Street projecting 5% growth, double-digit gains would translate into a sharply higher P/E multiple, along with higher earnings.


A utility holding company, FPL Group ($69.43) is another pick. It has considerable growth potential being overlooked by Wall Street, observes Mr. Leeb. The Street estimates five-year growth at 4%-5% in line with its regulated businesses, but over the past five years, revenues and income from un regulated activities have grown by better than 35% and now represent about 15% of FLP’s overall revenues. The best may lie ahead, notes Mr Leeb, who points, in particular, to the prospects of one company component, FPL Energy, the country’s largest wind generator with a better than 40% market share and a sizable backlog of wind projects; some experts, it is pointed out, suggest wind is the cheapest way to generate electricity.


Another favorite is Canadian-based Cameco ($83.84), the world’s only significant uranium producer. Emerging economies like China and India have little choice but to increase their reliance on nuclear energy, boosting uranium demand, Mr. Leeb said. Cameco, he adds, stands to benefit both from a tighter market and its own aggressive expansion plans. Trading at nearly 20 times forward earnings, the stock, observes Mr. Leeb, isn’t cheap for a mining concern, but it’s very cheap for a company likely to grow by better than 20% a year over the next five years.


Liquefied natural gas is an energy source whose use will grow in coming years and Mr. Leeb figures over the next 15 years it could add the equivalent of 5 million to 6 million barrels of oil a day to the world’s supply. That won’t solve our energy problems, but it will help, he said. One company with a critical LNG role is Air Products ($53.22), which makes heat exchangers that are vital in converting natural gas into liquefied natural gas that can be stored and shipped. Yet another reason Mr. Leeb likes Air Products: It produces hydrogen, which is vital in refining alternative fuels, including the vast Canadian tar sands.


Speaking of tar sands, Mr. Leeb also favors Canadian Oil Sands ($52.07). Canadian tar sands reserves, containing nearly 180 billion barrels of oil, are the world’s second largest body of potential oil reserves after Saudia Arabia’s oil reserves. The catch is that mining them is both difficult and expensive. Mr. Leeb observes that Canadian Oil Sands, despite being plagued by cost over-runs, is the only significant oil trust capable of generating solid double-digit in production, earnings and income over the next decade.


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