Energy Stocks, Oil Drop May Be Over

A former adviser to Carl Icahn in hostile takeover attempts of such oil biggies as Texaco and Phillips Petroleum, Alan Gaines, says he is not buying into the Wall Street view that the run-up in the prices of crude and energy stocks is nearly over.On Friday, when oil tumbled more than $6 a barrel, to $114.59 — the biggest one-day decline since mid-January 1991 — many energy pros took it as a sign that oil and energy stocks, which mirror the movement in oil prices, are in hot water.Mr. Gaines, a crackerjack energy mind, says he is convinced there are more gushers ahead for energy investors. In fact, the recent Russian incursion into Georgia and the likelihood that the turmoil over Iran’s nuclear development will worsen suggest to Mr. Gaines that oil prices have just about bottomed out following its more than 20% skid over the past seven weeks, to around $111 a barrel from its peak of $147.27. Mr. Gaines also says he believes that energy stocks, which were up between 50% and 300% in recent years before falling about 12% this year, have also bottomed out, and he’s backing up that view with his wallet.After embarking on a selling binge a few months ago, during which he unloaded partial stakes in a number of energy stocks that he thought had gotten ahead of themselves, Mr. Gaines — who personally holds a $100 million-plus equity portfolio, most of it in energy shares — recently reversed course and began increasing his energy holdings.Taking a packaged approach — rather than buying just one stock — he’s been acquiring, he tells me, SandRidge Energy, Chesapeake Energy, EXCO Resources, Petrohawk Energy, Marathon Oil, Newfield Exploration, and Range Resources.Mr. Gaines figures that if America has any serious new problems with Russia or Iran, “fears of supply disruption could push oil to $150 a barrel in a heartbeat.”While some energy experts believe a global economic slowdown and slowing oil demand from China could knock down crude to $80 to $90 a barrel, Mr. Gaines contends such a decline would be unsustainable, given dwindling supply and rising consumption. “I think we’re looking at $200-a-barrel oil in the next year or two,” he says.A Los Angeles money manager, Leonard Mohr, is an energy bull, but near-term he’s cautious. “I love Conoco, Transocean, and Schlumberger for the long term,” he says, “but I wouldn’t buy them now because every other day or so oil acts like it’s going to hell.” He cites Friday’s oil price dive as a case in point.A principal of MCR Associates, Mr. Mohr says he believes all three stocks could drop another 10% to 15% if oil breaks below $100, which he says is distinctly possible, given slowing global economies, weakness in commodities, and a lousy stock market. Looking out 18 to 24 months, however, he says he sees each of his three top picks up 25% or more from current levels.One reader, David Portnoy, a New York criminal attorney who is an active stock player, weighed in on the topic. In an e-mail message, he took issue with the prevailing view that energy stocks are a good buy for the long run, noting: “Depending upon the actions of Congress with regard to wind, solar, and natural gas alternatives, oil should begin a long-term bear trend.”In an intriguing development, Morgan Stanley downgraded energy shares about six weeks ago. But it recently shifted gears, pitching clients on a favorable North American natural gas scenario in which it zeroed in on the oil services, equipment, and offshore drilling segments. Its top stock picks: Tenaris, Baker Hughes, Schlumberger, Weatherford, and Smith International.These companies are said to meet at least one of the following criteria: exposure to the surge in offshore activity, well-positioned to gain international market share, and relatively immune to price-sensitive services in a declining American drilling environment.What’s more, based on its price targets, Morgan Stanley sees lofty upside for the oil services stocks, with an average gain of 44%.Other energy stocks favored by the brokerage include Suncor Energy, Marathon Oil, ConocoPhillips, and Valero Energy.The CEO of U.S. Global Investors, Frank Holmes, says the recent fall in energy stocks has given investors “a second chance” to capitalize on the sector. His best bets: Noble Energy and Petrobras.With global economies contracting, Chinese oil demand slowing, and supply from OPEC increasing, veteran West Coast institutional energy tracker Bob Berke says he reckons oil could easily drop to about $100. But he says any such decline should be short-lived, given constrained long-term supplies, rising inflation, and a strengthening dollar.His best bets are three big Russian energy players he says he regards as “cheap” stocks: Lukoil, Gazprom, and Rosneft.dandordan@aol.com

Energy Stocks, Oil Drop May Be Over

Energy Stocks, Oil Drop May Be Over

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