Euphoric Bulls Looking to 14,000 Dow by Year-End

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The New York Sun

It’s on every investor’s mind: How high will the streaking stock market go? Or, put another way, with the Dow now climbing above 13,000 after having hit a series of new highs in recent weeks and showing no sign it’s about to run out of steam, does it make sense to put new money to work in stocks at what some pros say are pretty lofty levels? Or do you take a more cautious approach and wait for some sort of setback before entering the arena?

While there are nervous Nellies around, such as a London money manager, Marcus Raab of Raab Associates, the sentiment among many pros I talk to remains overwhelmingly bullish.

“How can you not be nervous?” Mr. Raab asks. “There’s too much euphoria. Some of my Wall Street buddies are already talking about Dow 14,000 before year-end.”

It is reminiscent, he says, of the running of the bulls in Pamplona, Spain, an annual event that dates back to the 13th century and kicks off in July. “It seems like all fun and games, but it’s not,” he says. “In the running of the bulls, many people get gored and some die. It’s not risk-free.”

I caught up with some bulls in recent days, and they’re all of the same mind — the romp will continue despite some lingering Street concern about a prospective slowdown in economic and earnings growth, the ongoing inflation threat, and the course of interest rates.

“I don’t see any letup in the buying rampage because the American market is on sale, and liquidity trends remain extremely positive,” a West Coast liquidity tracker, Charles Biderman, tells me.

The chief investment strategist of the Northwest regional brokerage D.A. Davidson & Co., Fred Dickson, echoes this thought. “It’s not straight up, but the overall trend remains up,” he says.

Mr. Dickson, a former strategist at Goldman Sachs, said he expects a flat-to-down summer, a modest fall rally, and a year-end rise in the Dow to a new high of about 13,500. At worst, he sees a near-term dip of between 4% and 5%. Above 13,000 in the Dow, he thinks the market will be hit with increased supply, but it won’t turn the tide, he says.

Why not? Because over the short term, he says, the bull market will remain intact, reflecting better than expected first quarter earnings, a global economy that continues to roar, and ongoing merger mania, which is putting a halo effect on the market.

Here’s a rundown of his favorite sectors and some picks in each he expects to outperform the market during the balance of the year: financials (JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs); technology (Intel, Applied Materials); energy (Exxon Mobil, ENSCO International), and health care (Johnson & Johnson, Amgen). He also favors companies with large global operations that would benefit from a weaker dollar, namely United Technologies, PepsiCo, and Procter & Gamble. Mr. Dickson is also gung-ho on Asian markets, particularly Taiwan, China, and Singapore.

Mr. Biderman, president of TrimTabs Investment Research in Santa Rosa, Calif., observes that the buying actions of corporate America show it’s literally screaming that it’s hot for stocks. In particular, he pointed to last week’s $23 billion of stock buybacks and $27.7 billion worth of cash takeovers (which exclude Barclays $91 billion purchase of ABN Amro and AstraZeneca’s $15.6 billion acquisition of MedImmune).

Yet another sign to our liquidity tracker of corporate America’s ravenous appetite for stocks was last week’s plunge in insider sales to less than $1 billion. Earlier this year, insider sales averaged $4 billion a week.

Companies, as Mr. Biderman sees it, are delivering through their stock buying patterns a loud and clear message that the market is still undervalued. He attributes corporate enthusiasm for stocks to a rebound in the economy from slowing growth in real estate. He also notes that take-home pay is growing, as is net cash from mortgage refinancing after a decline in last year’s third and fourth quarters, both of which augur well for the market.

Still another market plus: Corporate balance sheets have never been stronger, which means, Mr. Biderman points out, there is more money available to buy fewer shares. Likewise, he adds, earnings should grow faster later this year.

His liquidity readings, he says, suggest a still higher market ahead before year-end, on the order of about 20% — which would put the Dow above 15,000. He does have some worries, though, namely a bevy of new stock offerings and brisk insider selling in the emerging markets.

Our bulls may be right on, but it’s worth noting that euphoria, as was the case in the early 2000s, is invariably a sign that the end of a bull run is close at hand.

dandordan@aol.com


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