MOSCOW – As the yearlong legal battle over the fate of Russia’s largest oil producer, Yukos, reaches fever pitch, experts are predicting the embattled company will be torn apart in the next few weeks.

“We’re approaching the end of the game and the future doesn’t look good for Yukos,” said Valery Nesterov, an oil and gas analyst at Moscow brokerage Troika Dialog.

This week saw Yukos on a rollercoaster ride that sent its stock tumbling 46% and U.S. oil prices rise to record highs as investors fretted over the future of the oil industry in Russia, second only to Saudi Arabia among global oil producers. On Wednesday, Yukos announced that bailiffs had frozen its assets and ordered a halt to nearly all of the company’s production. Tensions eased yesterday, as authorities declared that the court order did not require a halt in production – news that prompted a 20% rally in Yukos shares and a drop in oil prices.

But analysts said Yukos has only been granted a short reprieve.

“The state is not interested in negotiating a settlement,” said Christopher Granville, an analyst at Moscow’s United Financial Group. “There is no question that Yukos is soon going to have a new controlling shareholder.”

Yukos executives have already conceded that without access to its bank accounts, the company may not have enough cash to cover its rail shipments, which carry a quarter of the company’s oil. The company has paid for rail shipments only until the end of next week.

Russian authorities are claiming that Yukos, which pumps 1.7 million barrels a day, or 2% of the world’s oil, owes nearly $10 billion in back taxes. The company is facing a court order to pay $3.4 billion in unpaid taxes and fines for 2000. Yukos says it does not have the ready cash to cover the bill and proposals to extend the payments over a period of several years have been rebuffed by the government.

The back tax claim is part of a legal assault on the company that includes a criminal case against former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky, currently on trial in Moscow on charges of tax evasion, fraud and embezzlement. Mr. Khodorkovsky and his co-defendant, Yukos shareholder Platon Lebedev, face 10 years in a labor camp if convicted. The case, expected to conclude by the end of the summer, continued yesterday with the presentation of prosecution documents.

The two-pronged legal assault is widely seen as an attempt by the Kremlin to punish Mr. Khodorkovsky for supporting political parties in opposition to President Putin and hinting at a run for office.

Experts say Mr. Khodorkovsky – one of the so-called oligarchs who made for tunes during the chaotic sell-off of state firms after the collapse of the Soviet Union – broke an implicit deal with the Kremlin that saw wealthy businessmen stay out of politics in exchange for authorities turning a blind eye to dubious privatization transactions.

“Mr. Khodorkovsky would not play by the rules of the game and he’s being punished for it,” Mr. Granville said.

Yukos is now likely to end up in the hands of a state-owned or state-friendly company, analysts said. Last week, the Justice Ministry announced that it had frozen shares in Yukos’ Siberian production unit, Yuganskneftegaz, which produces 60% of the company’s total oil output, and plans to sell the unit to squeeze out payment for the back taxes. Yukos said it expects the production unit will be sold for a fraction of its value.

Analysts said three companies are in the running to purchase Yuganskneftegaz: Rosneft and Gazprom, both state-owned, and Surgutneftegaz, considered loyal to the Kremlin.

Experts said the appointment of one of Mr. Putin’s closest advisors, Igor Sechin, as chairman of Rosneft earlier this week could be an indication of what’s to come. A purchase of Yuganskneftegaz by Rosneft would catapult the company into the ranks of the world’s major oil producers.

“The Kremlin is looking to tighten its grip on the oil sector so it has more control over the economy, gets more in taxes, and can put its own people in top positions,” Mr. Nesterov said.

The Yukos case has drawn condemnation from Western governments and some foreign investors, who fear the government is trying to effectively renationalize Russia’s most important industry. But the legal attack has proven popular with ordinary Russians, most of whom look on Russia’s tiny business elite with suspicion. In a survey released by the ROMIR polling agency yesterday, 29% of respondents said the state should take over the oil company outright. A further 30% supported the government’s pursuit of back taxes and the prosecution of Mr. Khodorkovsky. Only 19% said the legal action should stop if Yukos agreed to pay its taxes.