Fat Fighters To the Fore
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Fat and getting fatter: The American obesity epidemic is an unhealthy fact of life we hear about every day, and it shows no signs of any serious reversal despite the boom in exercising and dieting schemes. Not surprisingly, this well-publicized trend has snared Wall Street’s attention, given its moneymaking implications.
The worrisome figures tell the story. About 30.5% of all adults are overweight, and nearly 8 million Americans are overweight by 100 pounds or more. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also notes that 13% of all children are seriously overweight. Making matters worse, the CDC observes, obesity accounts for more than 300,000 deaths a year attributed to the increased risk of heart disease, strokes, high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer, and other chronic diseases.
It’s no wonder, then, what with an estimated 1.6 billion adults in America and abroad overweight, that the Street has gotten caught up with the ballooning market for products and services designed to enable people to slim down. China has also jumped into the act, with its growing middle class becoming increasingly aware of health issues and willing to spend money on personal care.
One of the latest market trend trackers to cast its vote for weight-loss investing is the Complete Investor, a monthly letter that is pitching a trio of companies it thinks can throw off fat gains of roughly between 15% and 50% over the next 12 months. They are NutriSystem, Life Time Fitness, and American Oriental Bioengineering.
“Gain when others lose; promoters of weight loss and health are riding a big global trend,” a contributing editor of the newsletter, Ari Jahja, says.
Here’s a brief rundown from Mr. Jahja on the three weight-loss plays:
NutriSystem ($54.16): Well situated to capitalize on Americans’ need to shed pounds, the company is a leading provider of weight-management products. It offers a systematic weight-loss program built around portioncontrolled prepared meals. Depending on the selected program, a 28-day supply of food costs about $294, which, on average, is less than competitors’ offerings. Rather than sell through franchises, NutriSystem, which is a high-margin business, markets its products directly via telephone, infomercials, the QVC shopping network, and the Internet. More than 60% of new customers have been signed up online.
Finances are strong, with no long-term debt, and the company enjoys an exceptional 83% return on equity. Earnings this year should run about $2.80 a share, about a 25% gain from the $2.23 projected for fiscal 2006.
NutriSystem, once a hypergrowth stock, rose 2,000% between 2004 and 2006, but it fell by more than 25% earlier this year when the company projected fiscal first quarter 2007 earnings below analysts’ expectations. Nonetheless, with the bad news already in the stock price and the downside risk limited, the shares represent a good buying opportunity and are a speculative buy, with a 12-month target of $56.
Life Time Fitness ($50.58) operates about 60 large sports and fitness centers, which include resort-like spa amenities, in high traffic areas in 13 states. It is on track to open an additional eight before year end. Of the few public health fitness companies, LTF is the newsletter’s favorite in an industry growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 7%.
Although the company is highly leveraged, it generates sufficient cash flow to cover annual interest expenses six times over. Sales and earnings growth has been strong. For example, in the third quarter of 2006, earnings jumped 25% versus the year-earlier period. The stock is a speculative buy for a target of $60 in the next 12 months.
American Oriental Bioengineering ($9.51), a micro-cap company, is the final pick. It is a direct play on the growing market in China for traditional Chinese medicine. The China-based company, listed on the Big Board, is a leader in its niche of plant-based pharmaceutical products, all of which are widely distributed throughout China’s 28 provinces. Recently, the company launched a new line of products geared toward alleviating premenstrual pain in women. Plans call for the company to enter the American market, tapping into the growing interest in nonprescription health supplements.
Financially, the company is in good shape, having posted a 42% earnings gain in its most recently reported quarter. American Oriental also has $71 million on its balance sheet, which can be used to make additional acquisitions. For its past fiscal year, management expects per-share earnings of at least 45 cents on revenues of between $106 million and $108 million, and an 18% rise this year to at least 53 cents. With a low price/earningsto-growth ratio of just 0.8, the stock is a speculative buy with a target of $15.
The bottom line: Fatten your stock profits with fat-fighters.