Fed Keeps ‘Measured’ Language As It Raises Key Rate to 2.75%
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Federal Reserve policy-makers, raising their benchmark interest rate another quarter point, said pricing pressures have increased. Stocks and bonds fell on concern the central bank is laying the groundwork to accelerate the pace of increases.
“Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement released after meeting in Washington. “The rise in energy prices, however, has not notably fed through to core consumer prices.”
The stronger language on inflation risks came as the Fed raised its benchmark rate to 2.75% and restated a plan to carry out further increases at a “measured” pace. The policy-makers have now raised the rate seven times since June, the longest streak in more than 25 years.
“This signals that more aggressive action, possibly a 50-basis point rise, is possible for June,” following another quarter-point in May, said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now an adviser for the Stanford Washington Research Group in Washington. “There is a division within the committee. There are some who are beginning to worry about the inflation problem. There are others who aren’t convinced yet.”
Since the last Fed meeting on February 1-2, crude oil prices surged to an unprecedented $57.60 a barrel, gasoline costs reached a record, and the Reuters-CRB index of 17 commodities surged to a 24-year high March 16 as copper prices rose to the highest since 1989. The Fed’s so-called beige book regional survey said more manufacturers were able to pass on cost increases to customers, though with only limited effect on consumer prices.
Traders kept their bets that the Fed will lift the rate by half a percentage point over its next two meetings, on May 3 and June 30, while increasing the odds of a bigger jump in June. The rate on July federal funds futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rose 3 basis points to 3.35%, showing traders are certain the Fed will raise its target to 3.25% by the end of July. The contracts show a 42% chance of a 50-basis point move in June instead of a quarter-point increase.
“They are setting us up for the possibility that they may need to accelerate if they think that the pace of inflation is picking up,” said the chief investment officer at PanAgora Asset management in Boston, Edgar Peters.
Mr. Gramley said the statement contained another significant change, one that shows that FOMC members know they must continue to act to keep inflation under control.
“The committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal,” the statement said. In the previous meeting’s statement, the language was less conditional.
The FOMC said yesterday that monetary policy “remains accommodative” and that with “underlying inflation expected to be contained, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.”
The Fed is trying to steer the overnight bank lending rate to a level that will keep the world’s largest economy growing without speeding inflation. Some Fed officials including St. Louis Fed President Bank President William Poole have said the neutral range is between 3% and 5%.
The Fed’s target rate is still less than overall consumer price inflation, meaning the real interest rate is negative.
Chairman Alan Greenspan has testified before four Congressional committees and one presidential panel since the last FOMC meeting. He did not use the word “measured” when referring to future interest rate increases, and some economists took that as a sign the FOMC planned to drop the language from this week’s statement.
When asked at a February 16 Senate Banking Committee hearing about whether the Fed may soon scrap the wording, Mr. Greenspan said that even though inflation is contained, “We’re not going to have the same statement in perpetuity. At some point it’s going to change.”