Fed’s Kohn Says Added Transparency Is in the Works
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Federal Reserve policy-makers will consider taking more steps toward transparency because giving investors more information about central bank deliberations fosters economic stability, a Fed governor, Donald Kohn, said.
“We have done a lot, but I am sure more can be accomplished and the committee will look carefully at proposals as they are brought forward,” Mr. Kohn told the American Economic Association yesterday in Philadelphia. “Over time, I anticipate further steps toward explaining our views, but at a pace that is likely to be measured.”
Mr. Kohn’s comments come just five days after the central bank for the first time disclosed the minutes to its most recent Open Market Committee meeting before the following meeting. The policy change gives investors more timely information about the Fed’s thinking on future interest rates and the economy.
Minutes of the December 14 Fed meeting convinced some investors that central bankers were more concerned about inflation than they said in December and would keep raising interest rates. Treasury note yields jumped and stocks accelerated their decline after the release at 2 p.m. on January 4. The American stock markets finished the day down $186 billion, or about 1.2%.
“Reactions to the minutes could be sizable, as they were last Tuesday,” Mr. Kohn said. “But because the minutes do elaborate on the rationale for the committee’s decisions and outlook, these reactions should help markets anticipate policy actions and price assets in ways that foster economic stability.”
The Fed’s governors voted unanimously December 14 to start making minutes of the FOMC meetings become available after only a three-week delay instead of six.
The Fed, under the leadership of its chairman, Alan Greenspan, has increased its communication with the public about its outlook for the economy and its interest rate policy.
When Mr. Greenspan became chairman in 1987, the FOMC did not announce its policy decisions. Now the committee not only announces changes in the benchmark rate, but also explains its outlook for economic growth and inflation and hints at the future path of rates in a public statement following each meeting.
“It is incumbent on us to be clear, and allow people’s expectations to align to where we are going,” said Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero, speaking two days ago on a panel at the association’s annual meeting. “One way of making expectations more stable is to be clearer.”
The Fed began including forward-looking statements about the path of interest rates in August 2003, when it said rates may remain low for a “considerable period.” The committee had just cut its benchmark overnight bank-lending rate to 1%, the lowest since 1958, two months earlier in an effort to help economic growth and head off possible deflation. The FOMC began foreshadowing its moves because markets were expecting higher inflation than the Fed’s own outlook predicted, Mr. Kohn said. With the fed funds rate already so low, there was little the central bank could do if the economy softened.
In May 2004 the FOMC said rates may begin rising at a pace that is “likely to be measured,” a phrase it has used in each official statement since then while emphasizing that inflation is under control.
The committee raised the rate by a quarter point in June and its four other meetings since then, bringing the rate to its current 2.25%. In the same time, the yield on the 10-year American Treasury note used as a peg for many consumer and corporate loans actually fell, from 4.58% then to 4.27% as of Friday.
The fact that long-term rates stayed low after the Fed first started foreshadowing changes in the short-term rate shows that the practice has worked by not fanning inflation fears, Mr. Kohn said.
“Under these circumstances, giving the markets more information about our policy inclination, and thereby holding down longer-term interest rates, seemed to be the less risky way to stabilize inflation,” Mr. Kohn said. “I would judge the outcome to have been successful.”