Fireworks Are on the Horizon for Growth Stocks

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Fireworks are just a few days away. And if a couple of pros are on the money, look for growth stocks, which have been deadbeats in recent years, to soon set off their own fireworks as well.


For five years running, limping growth stocks have been playing second fiddle to value stocks, but lately they’re displaying signs of renewed vigor, a trend our pros are convinced will become much more pronounced. In essence, they believe the worm is about to turn.


One pro who thinks this way is Morgan Stanley’s chief investment strategist, Henry McVey. Taking note of hockey great Wayne Gretzky’s insightful maxim, “Go where the puck is going to be, not where it has been,” Mr. McVey is advocating a similar approach, urging clients to shift from value to growth, which is where he believes the investment puck is headed. His view: The game is changing, what with growth factors gaining momentum in recent months, a trend he sees continuing in the second half of the year. Or as he puts it another way, “A brave new world of growth is emerging.”


Another growth stock buff is Barbara Rosenblum, a principal of San Francisco-based money manager Rosenblum Silverman Sutton, a firm run by three women with assets of about $250 million. “We see a transition,” she tells me, “from a dead investment period for growth stocks the last five years to an explosive growth period over the next three years.”


The key reason, she said: Rapid global economic expansion, especially in China and India, where 37% of the world’s population are becoming consumers. In the last three years alone, she observes, 300 million people in China (about the population of America) have gone from poverty-stricken to consumers. It means, she said, “The elephant is in the living room, markets for everything will be expanded, and the next three years will be dynamite for growth stocks.”


In the environment she sees, Ms. Rosenblum believes some growth companies will do just great and the chief strategy is to put on a global hat. One of her top picks is a smaller growth name, Euronet Worldwide, which provides ATMs to India and Third World nations. She thinks shares of the firm – which posted 2004 sales of $381 million – have the wherewithal to double or triple over the next few years. Other favorites – which she sees as potential 30% to 50% gainers over the next two to three years – include Genentech, Bausch & Lomb, Fortune Brands, and Robert Half International.


“It’s only a matter of time,” she said, “before people become as ecstatic about growth stocks as they are about housing.”


Mr. McVey notes that the initiation of dividends is another allure of growth companies. The spread between the value and growth dividend yield has declined around 50 basis points from its peak in 2000 of 140 basis points, and he believes the gap could narrow further as the percentage of growth companies paying dividends continues to rise. Already, about 72% of growth companies are paying dividends, a 17% increase since the low in 2001.


“For our nickel,” Mr. McVey said, “a little growth and a little more dividend yield will go a long way toward distinguishing performance in the marketplace.”


Yet another plus seen for growth companies is Fed tightening. After 1989, growth stocks reigned for 29 months, followed by value stocks for 13 months. Thereafter, the Fed started a major tightening, setting the stage for a long, but modest cycle of growth outperformance through 1997, followed by two more years of sharp growth leadership. Mr. McVey believes a similar transition has begun.


Supporting his view, he points out, is the year-to-date performance in which growth has marginally outperformed value. Even more telling, he notes, is that growth has triumphed over value during each of the last four months.


So how should investors play his projected comeback in growth stocks? Among his favorites are Pfizer, Altria, PepsiCo, Medtronic, and Yum! Brands, each of which, one veteran Morgan Stanley analyst believes, has the potential to generate about a 20% gain over the next 12 months.


TV boxing announcer Michael Buffer is known for his catch phrase, “Let’s get ready to rumble!” That, too, well captures the mood of our growth stock advocates.


The New York Sun

© 2025 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  create a free account

or
By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use