Byron Wien, last year named one of Wall Street’s 16 most influential people, has long published his “Ten Surprises” — a collection of annual predictions that have an uncanny record of coming true.

These days, he has added a new list: five “sure things.” Why the change? “I’m getting older,” he told a gathering last week. “I can’t afford to wait around anymore, so I have to invest in sure things.”

This tongue in cheek introduction runs counter to Mr. Wien’s sneaking suspicion that, as he says, “If you work forever, you can live forever.” This view may explain why he decided to reinvent himself at Pequot Capital two years ago after more than two decades as Morgan Stanley’s chief investment strategist. Even for gurus, it’s not necessarily fun to start over.

Happily, Mr. Wien likes his new digs and says his job is pretty similar to his old one. At Morgan Stanley, he viewed himself as one of the firm’s top salesmen, making presentations to clients around the world. He recently returned from a wide-ranging visit to the Middle East, the kind of outing that puts him in touch with investors and opinion leaders across the globe and which gives him an unusual perspective on international trends.

It is perhaps that global awareness that earned Mr. Wien top honors on Wall Street for much of his career. In addition, he says he owes his success to his early decision to innovate. “My career has been built on a few good ideas,” he says. “A long time ago I decided: Don’t try to do it better; do it differently.”

Before long, investors became hooked on the “Ten Surprises,” which he publishes on the first business day in January, and other marketing devices such as a yearly lunch in the Hamptons with financial big hitters and his annual essay reflecting the views of the anonymous (but real) “smartest man in Europe.”

Now Mr. Wien is having some fun with his “sure things,” a description that almost begs for contradiction. With modest editorializing, here they are:

• Oil prices are going to $100 a barrel or higher. Since oil prices are now above $90, this projection does not appear especially controversial. At the beginning of the year, when he forecast $80 oil, there weren’t so many takers. Still, there are some who challenge the inevitability of rising oil prices, expecting that OPEC might increase supplies to forestall that magic $100 price.

Mr. Wien says near term prices could indeed flatten for a while. Over the next several years, though, the aging of wells and consequent slide in output from the Middle East and other traditional producing regions will put a floor under the price. At the same time, he says demand from China, India, and other emerging countries, where consumption is fewer than two barrels a person — compared to 26 barrels in America and 13 in Western Europe — will inevitably stretch capacity.

• Gold prices will reach $1,000 in 2008 or 2009. This projection does not assume that there is an increase in geopolitical instability, or in inflation, which Mr. Wien says are the usual factors boosting gold purchases. Instead, he says rising demand will result from the desire of those countries that hold lots of , such as China and Middle Eastern oil producers, to diversify their holdings. “The wealth of the world is migrating to countries that are impatient with holding so much paper,” he says. He does not think that major exporters to America will dump their dollars or their euros. He just thinks they will diversify into other stores of value, including gold.

• Cotton prices will move higher. This forecast stems from the diversion of acreage in America away from cotton to corn. As poor countries around the world begin to enjoy a higher standard of living, one of the first changes is an increase in the amount of protein in the diet. This shift boosts the production of corn, which is used as livestock feed and is today augmented by demand for ethanol.

Mr. Wien points out also that much of the population growth is in warm weather regions of the world, where people wear cotton. Consequently, the demand side looks strong. The price of cotton is around 64 cents a pound now; Mr. Wien thinks it will move to 80 cents in the not too distant future.dollars

• The dollar will continue to weaken — to $1.50 versus the euro — and the Chinese renminbi will continue its upward ascent. This view is at odds with Mr. Wien’s prediction in January that the dollar would stabilize because of rising interest rates. No doubt the credit market woes and subsequent cutting of rates triggered his change of mind.

Though few of these projections appear especially positive for America, Mr. Wien thinks the S&P 500 will hit 1,600 by year-end, up from 1,494 currently. That’s not to suggest that the investment landscape is without risk; Mr. Wien is concerned about anti-trade sentiment in Congress, and he despairs that America has not moved to enact sensible energy legislation or to boost domestic R&D efforts.

Notwithstanding these worries, Mr. Wien puts his money where his mouth is. He is currently invested in gold mining stocks and cotton futures, and other investments that logically flow from his macro views. “I have no patience with strategists that don’t invest,” he says. “We’re not running a university here.” Maybe his next career?

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