From Pamplona to Wall Street
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

It’s on every investor’s mind. How high up for the rampaging stock market?
The cheerful answer: Look for the romping bull to stay on a tear for at least another year.
That’s what I get from one of the best investment minds around — Wall Street veteran and former Goldman Sachs strategist Fred Dickson, who is described by one Goldman partner as “a seasoned brainy Street pro who doesn’t hem and haw and has the consistent ability to see through the fog of uncertainty.”
I caught up with Mr. Dickson earlier this year with the Dow in the low 1,100s. At that time, with bearish fever rampant — chiefly reflecting rising interest rates, fears of a slowing economy, growing international tensions, and no end in sight to the war in Iraq — Mr. Dickson, who heads up investment strategy at regional brokerage biggie D.A. Davidson & Co. of Great Falls, Mont., bucked conventional wisdom, boldly predicting new market highs before year end (which is precisely what happened).
What’s more, he now sees more of the same, with stock prices headed modestly higher in the next couple of months and tacking on another gain of about 10% in 2007.
In the second week in July in Pamplona, Spain, the city annually conducts a week-long festival highlighted by the running of the bulls, a well publicized event throughout the world in which townspeople and bulls chase each other along a number of streets.
“It’s Pamplona time on Wall Street,” Mr. Dickson says.
Maybe so, but in contrast to Mr. Dickson’s market buoyancy, I came across the latest issue of Superstock Investor, a monthly investment newsletter in Boca Raton, Fla., in which editor Jeff Manera, offering up some cautionary notes, warns subscribers that “a healthy correction in the S &P 500 in the 10% range” could be looming.
He reasons that the widely anticipated “soft landing” economic scenario appears in jeopardy as durable goods and GDP data suggest accelerating weakness. In addition, with housing’s harder-than-expected landing, consumer confidence heading south, Iraq still a huge mess, and too much bullishness by analysts and newsletter writers (usually a contrary indicator), the fuel that has been pushing the market indexes higher is nearing empty, he argues.
Also worrying him, the indexes are technically overbought, he says, with the S &P 500 up 12% in the past few months — the most one-dimensional rally since 2003 without a meaningful pullback. Mr. Manera also points out that most of the heavy short positions have been covered, creating buying pressure. Likewise, the volume of share buybacks, which has also spurred buying pressure, is beginning to wane.
So why is Mr. Dickson so bullish? Here’s his rationale:
• The global economy remains strong and should help offset the slowdown in the American housing market. He notes, though, there is an ongoing debate as to whether our housing market can indeed slow down the global juggernaut.
• The sidelines are awash with cash, including some $2.23 trillion in money-market funds alone. These funds are yielding an average 4.47%. Mr. Dickson figures many investors may well be tempted to seek a much higher return by switching to stocks, especially given the rising market.
• Similarly, institutional investors, many lagging the market averages, will seek to play catch-up before year end and commit themselves more heavily to the market.
• Inflation pressures are backing off. Indicative of this is the falling price of oil, which Mr. Dickson expects to either stabilize at current levels or head lower.
• Rate increases from the Fed are pretty much history for now.
• The rash of mergers, acquisitions, IPOs and leveraged buyouts is a big confidence booster for both the economy and the stock market and is a clear sign Corporate America sees better days ahead.
Interestingly, Mr. Dickson also sees the impending departure of the defense secretary as a mild positive. “Because we’re bogged down in Iraq, his resignation could lead the way to a diplomatic exit,” he says.
Given his outlook, Mr. Dickson is telling clients, “I’d be an aggressive stock buyer on any small pullbacks in the market.”
A bull on equities worldwide, he thinks investors should apportion twothirds of their stock portfolio to the American market and one-third to overseas markets. Abroad, his favorites are the emerging Far Eastern countries, namely China, South Korea and Hong Kong. Mexico is another pick.
One of his favorite market sectors is the broad global brokerage firms, particularly Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Another is international banks, especially JPMorgan Chase and Barclays. He’s also pounding the table for technology stocks, notably Texas Instruments (which he owns personally), Intel, and Oracle.
One worthwhile note of caution: Some participants in the bull run in Pamplona are known to have been gored.