From Russia Without Love

One of my favorite James Bond films, maybe yours, too, is “From Russia With Love.” Judging, though, from the growing number of anti-American actions by President Putin, a more appropriate title for a Wall Street version of the movie might be “From Russia Without Love.”The Cold War between America and the Soviet Union ended in late 1991. But some investment professionals worry it’s evolving again, inspired by Mr. Putin’s desire to exert growing influence in the oil-rich Middle East and his apparent willingness to openly buck the Bush administration to do it.A veteran investment adviser, Charles Allmon, figures Russia’s swelling belligerence toward America is shaping up as “one of the year’s growing and unrecognized geopolitical risks” that could damage the stock market. Mr. Allmon, editor of the Growth Stock Outlook in Chevy Chase, Md., thinks the Russian president’s actions, surely at odds with the diplomatic desires of the White House, are almost certain to strain relations between the two countries and heighten this year’s market worries.Money manager Selwyn Ortz of Hong Kong-based HK Investments echoes such thinking. Taking note of a visit Mr. Putin made to America about two years ago during which Mr. Bush, at an appearance with him at a public school, gleefully described the Russian president as “my good friend Vladimir,” Mr. Ortz says of the comment that it’s “nothing more than idle dreaming, an imaginary friendship that has nowhere to go but kaput.” He believes this to be especially true in light of Mr. Putin’s open support of Iran’s nuclear program and his invitation to the terrorist organization Hamas to visit Russia.What’s especially worrisome to Mr. Ortz is that Mr. Putin’s actions could sabotage American peace efforts in the Middle East by encouraging Iran to resist international efforts to get it to scrap its nuclear ambitions and by discouraging Hamas from establishing a new live-andlet-live arrangement with Israel that doesn’t call for its destruction.“Mark my words,” says Mr. Ortz; “the Cold War will heat up again, if it already hasn’t.”The Sunday Times of London reported in December that Israel had ordered preparation for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities before the end of March 2006. Russia, in opposition to American wishes, has already entered this fray, recently selling Iran its latest ground-to-air missiles, which are capable of bringing down jet fighters, as well as missiles. They could be operational shortly.Money manager Raymond Stahler of London-based Stahler Dearborn, Ltd., views Russia’s actions as contradictory to creating an agenda for peace in the Middle East and potentially ominous for the stability of the region and the markets.”Like rising interest rates and high oil prices, Russia’s pro-terrorist strategy is another worry you have to keep a close eye on,” he says.Even more disturbing to investment adviser Bill Rhodes of Boston-based Rhodes Analytics is the development of a close relationship between Russia and China, which are running joint military exercises and sharing technology and weapons systems. He also views China’s backing of anti-American factions, a way of weakening America, as classic Chinese warfare – in effect, deprive your opponent of his ally and then try to turn the ally against him. Based on Russia’s support of terrorist regimes, Mr. Rhodes believes potential for a new Cold War is unmistakably brewing.When it comes to the international arena, Mr. Rhodes says, “We’re living with volcanoes,”which, aside from Russia, should include North Vietnam and Venezuela. He also thinks a nuclear-armed Iran will likely mean that the price of oil, as well as energy and defense stocks, are apt to remain high despite their big runs.Mr. Allmon believes an Israeli hit on Iran, whose president has promised to “wipe Israel off the map,” could send oil and gold prices soaring. It’s why he’s telling his newsletter’s subscribers, “Do not dismiss the possibility that the gold price may again cross the Dow.” In line with this thinking, his managed accounts hold positions in Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining, the top two gold producers.Early this year, money manager Leonard Mohr of Los Angeles-based MCR Associates raised the question: “Does anyone seriously believe there will be peace in the Middle East in our lifetime? “The answer, he believes, is an emphatic no. “Investors can’t live in fear,” he says, “but they have to realize that Middle East risks as they relate to the financial markets are with us for life. “The actions of Russia, China, Iran, and the terrorists, he believes, will only make the situation more chaotic.dandordan@aol.com

From Russia Without Love

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