Ignore the Gloom and Doom, The Economy Is Doing Fine

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Mark Twain once observed, “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” If the economy could speak, it would say much the same. Friday’s jobs report caused a flurry of alarming headlines in the press, including “Weak Jobs Data Fuel Fears for Economy” in the Financial Times. American stock exchanges fell in response.


The gloom is caused by a false impression that economic expectations were not met. A survey of economic forecasters yielded an average prediction that May employment would rise by 180,000. Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday a preliminary estimate of an increase of 78,000 jobs.


In fact, the employment numbers do not suggest that the economy is slowing. First, economic forecasters are clever professionals with margins of error on their forecasts that rarely are reported. For growth in monthly employment, that margin of error tends to be plus or minus 140,000. Thus, expectation of 180,000 new jobs in May was more reasonably a range between 40,000 and 320,000. The actual preliminary number of 78,000 easily falls within that range, so the economic forecasts were in fact correct.


Second, preliminary numbers are subject to revision at least twice. For instance, in April, February’s job creation number was revised up from 243,000 to 300,000, and March’s number was revised up from 110,000 to 146,000.The total upward revision for the two months was 93,000. On Friday the March figure of 146,000 was revised down to 122,000.


Third, and most important, the volatile monthly measurements of employment are less important than the long-term trends. Over the past 12 months, the economy has generated 2 million new jobs, the vast majority in the private sector. Looking at the average of April and May produces a more realistic and reassuring picture of 176,000 new payroll jobs per month. If the economy were to average 78,000 new jobs for several consecutive months, that pattern might be a cause for concern. But one month’s preliminary number does not make a trend.


The unemployment rate in May fell to 5.1%, down from 5.6% just the previous May. Excluding teenagers, the American unemployment rate is well below 5%. The number of unemployed stands at 7.6 million, down from 8.2 million a year ago. More than 149 million Americans are employed, more than ever before.


There is no real sign that our economy is slowing. Personal income, orders for durable goods, retail sales, housing starts, existing home sales, and other indicators are all moving strongly in the right direction. It would take a very clever mind filled with predetermined pessimism to look at the available data and conclude that the American economy is on the decline. But some financial reporters have those minds.


Just two weeks ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis pegged real economic growth at 3.5% in the first quarter of this year. This is a rate that much of the world only aspires to reach.


Indeed, our economy is growing despite many negative factors: record prices for petroleum products, onerous regulation, and the economic weakness of many of our major trading partners around the world, particularly Japan and much of the European Union.


Business pages over the weekend ominously warned their readers that the Federal Reserve Board is likely to shift its monetary policy in response to Friday’s employment numbers. Over the past year, the Fed has let short-term interest rates rise from 1% to 3%. The consistent increases may end because the Fed believes interest rates have reached an appropriate level, not as a specific reaction to the labor report.



A former FCC commissioner, Mr. Furchtgott-Roth is president of Furchtgott-Roth Economic Enterprises. He can be reached at hfr@furchtgott-roth.com.


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