International Speedway Tearing Up Wall Street
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In Wall Street, like in any other business, the race goes to the quick. And speaking of speed, racetrack operator International Speedway, a major player in Nascar racing and a speed demon in the marketplace, may be an investment ride well worth taking.
Standard & Poor’s analyst Gary McDaniel describes the company as a beneficiary of Nascar’s rising popularity, which has helped it become the country’s top motorsports operator, with 11 racetracks that stage more than 100 racing events annually, including the Daytona 500.
Not surprisingly, the company’s stock has been on the fast track, with rapid growth in revenues, earnings, and cash flow. Currently trading at $56.75, it racked up a hefty 49% gain last year and posted a market-beating, though modest, 2.5% advance this year through early June. Mr. McDaniel believes the shares should continue to travel in the left lane, rising nearly another 20% to $68 over the next 12 months.
For starters, he points to strong and sustained earnings growth. The company, which generates 85% of its $640 million in annual revenues from Nascar events, turned in a blistering 48% gain in the first quarter of fiscal 2005 and has raised its guidance for the second quarter. For the full fiscal year, Mr. McDaniel sees earnings of $3.02 a share, up 27% from fiscal 2004, assuming strong attendance, concessions and sponsorship revenues, and built-in broadcast fee growth.
A big plus is the surging draw of Nascar racing, the country’s fastest growing sports attraction. Nascar draws more than 10 million fans a year to its races and boasts a worldwide TV audience of more than 75 million. Likewise, its number of corporate sponsors, among them Anheuser-Busch, Nextel, Sears, Dodge, and Autozone, is swelling
Over the longer term, Mr. McDaniel expects International Speedway’s earnings to rise at a compounded annual rate of 11.5% from yearly revenue growth of about 10% and margin expansion. He also believes free cash flow will climb in excess of 20% annually over the next 10 years.
The company’s sparkling record suggests the analyst’s buoyant outlook is hardly blue-sky. In its last 10 fiscal years, International Speedway’s admission revenues rose at a compounded annual rate of 20%, while concessions revenues rose 21%. In the same period, motorsports-related income – primarily composed of broadcast and sponsorship fees and hospitality rentals – grew 34%. In turn, this strong revenue growth, combined with an improvement in the operating margin of more than 2.5 percentage points, has led to an impressive 27% compounded growth rate for operating income, while cash from operations has risen 26%.
Meanwhile, the company’s expansion plans strongly point to a craving for even speedier growth. It has acquired 677 acres on Staten Island for $110 million and is studying the feasibility of a motorsports facility that would have approximately 80,000 seats and a 50-acre retail center. The company is also exploring opportunities to bring Nascar racing to the Pacific Northwest.
Yet other beneficiaries of Nascar racing are Speedway Motorsports (TRK) and Dover Motorsports (DVD).
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MORE RATE AGONY: Add well-regarded economist J.C. Spender, professor of management at the Cranfield School of Management on the outskirts of London, to the list of economic soothsayers who believe interest rates could climb considerably higher than consensus expectations. One key reason, he said, is the vigor of the Chinese economy. China needs commodities, which means they have to go up in price. That in turn means higher inflation and higher rates. Yet other catalysts for higher rates, he notes, are the balance of payments deficit, the likelihood of renewed weakness in the dollar, and the necessity of boosting rates to attract foreign capital.
Addressing himself to those Fed watchers who believe Fed tightening – namely eight straight rate hikes since June 2004 – is nearing an end, Mr. Spender observes: “It’s summer time; the sun is setting, people are off on vacation, and there’s a tendency to think everything is okay.
“Unfortunately, the problem is at some point you have to deal with reality.”