Investors May Want To Take a Passage to India

Jittery investors are racing to temper their losses by seeking hiding places in some of the fastest-growing overseas markets until the shakeout is over in America.It’s a dangerous game of international hide-and-seek, as markets around the globe are taking a thumping this year. China, for example, is down more than 50% since October, while India has fallen about 29% this year and Russian has been pounded lately in the wake of its invasion of Georgia and amid mounting fears of a conflict with the West.What’s more, investors are pulling more money out of global stock funds ($24 billion in the past three months) than they are from American funds ($19 billion in the same period).Still, some market analysts are aggressively pitching investments in fast-growing emerging markets. If you’re game for one of them as a way to diversify your holdings, and wonder where you should go, a savvy analyst at Weiss Research of Jupiter, Fla., Larry Edelson, says cast your investment eyes toward India.Why India? “Because, it’s one of the world’s most exciting markets, and India is now where China was eight to 10 years ago,” Mr. Edelson says. The Indian economy is booming, growing at a sizzling 9% rate, way faster than that of America, and only a couple of percentage points behind China.Likewise, India’s stock market — the BSE Index — has been on a roll, having risen tenfold between June 1990 and the present. Last year, the index jumped 47% to a high of 20,375. However, reflecting this year’s meltdown of global stock markets, the index has been struck by heavy selling and is currently trading at around 14,480, down about 32% from its highs earlier this year. On a positive note, the index is showing clear support levels and a bottoming formation, though Mr. Edelson notes volatility is likely to remain high.Laying out his rationale for India, Mr. Edelson offers a half-dozen reasons to support his bullish case:oIndia boasts the world’s fastest-growing population, expanding at a rate of 16 million people a year. At that rate, its population will exceed 1.4 billion by 2030.oGovernment investment in the country’s infrastructure is soaring, with plans for $90 billion of assorted industrial-related projects in the works over the next three years. These include high-speed rail freight lines, power plants to supply an additional 4,000 megawatts, three new seaports, six new airports, and at least 12 more industrial clusters.oA boom in manufacturing, which is growing at a brisk 8.8% annual rate and now accounts for almost 30% of India’s economy.oCorporate earnings that are climbing at a blistering 35% annual rate. Of 800 publicly traded companies, earnings are growing at an average 17% rate. Corporate Indian biggies such as Tata Steel and pharmaceutical company Ranbaxy Labs are experiencing even faster growth.oA surge in private equity investors, who are now putting more money into India than they are into China. Nearly $20 billion in private equity poured into India last year, a 156% jump from 2006 and 34% more than went into China in 2007.oA ballooning Indian middle class of 330 million people and expanding. Demand is strong for telecommunications, autos, housing, financial services, and jewelry. Auto sales are zipping along at a 17% annual growth rate and airline passenger traffic is expected to more than triple over the next five years, to around 50 million a year from 14 million.Taking note of the pullback in the India stock market, our bull figures the country’s shares are presently selling at what he considers “bargain-basement levels.”Mr. Edelson’s best bets for playing the India stock market center on a trio of funds: two closed-end funds, the Morgan Stanley Investment Fund (IIF) and the India Fund (IFN), and an exchange-traded fund, the Wisdom Tree India Earnings Fund (EPI), which tracks the performance of 150 top India companies.A word of caution: India is by no means a perfect investment setting. Surging inflation, now running at a 13-year-high at more than 8.5%, and climbing interest rates could team up to slow its economic growth. Likewise, terrorist bombings in India are on the rise, with suspicion pointing to Islamic terrorists.dandordan@aol.com

Investors May Want To Take a Passage to India

Investors May Want To Take a Passage to India

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