About a year and a half ago, Iraq was on every investor’s mind. And for a very good reason. Events in Iraq, or the lack of them, often caused the stock market to go up or down, frequently on a daily basis.

What a change. As far as Wall Street goes, Iraq, as a market influence, is fast becoming a distant memory. As money manager Tom Postin of Los Angelesbased P&W Partners puts it: “It’s like it’s the war that never was.”

His point is well taken. Indicative of this, on Wednesday, when an explosion in an American military base in Mosul killed 22 people, 18 of them Americans, the Dow surged nearly 98 points to a three-year high. The day after, the Dow rose another 56 points. A year ago, Mr. Postin said, an event of this nature would have driven the Dow down a couple of hundred points. Now, though, he added, “in Wall Street’s mind, it’s a nonevent.”

Mr. Postin, taking sharp issue with such a premise,said he doesn’t make an important investment decision without factoring in the latest Iraqi developments. “I know a lot of people on Wall Street think Iraq is yesterday’s news, but they’re shortsighted. All we need is another significant setback there, the press will jump on it, the market will get hit, and the Street will realize Iraq is still a very real and ongoing threat.”

Actually, some pros look for the Iraqi conflict – which began in March of 2003 – to soon be back in the limelight. That’s a reference to what is characterized as Iraq, part four, a political scenario, some say, that could play havoc with the stock market if it unwinds the wrong way.

Part four is the country’s national election scheduled for January 30, which follows part one: the start of the Iraqi war; part two: the city-by-city buildup of coalition troops in troubled areas, including Fallujah, designed to wipe out the insurgents, and part three: the nonstop violence and use of suicide bombers throughout the country.

One concerned pro, Fred Dickson, the well-regarded chief investment strategist of northwest regional brokerage D.A. Davidson & Company, Great Falls, Mont., predicts the market will exhibit increasing nervousness by mid-January and could go into a tizzy then because of the impending Iraqi elections. In fact, he sees a 5% to 8% pullback in stock prices kicking off at that time because of renewed Iraqi worries, which, he believes, will conjure up anew concerns about oil supply disruptions and terrorist attacks in America.

“I think we’re looking at a replay of what took place ahead of the Olympic Games in August, “Mr.Dickson said. Between February and August, stocks, in part reflecting numerous threats of bombings and heightened terrorism worries, fell about 7%.

Money manager Raymond Stahler of London-based Stahler Dearborn, expects much more violence in Iraq before the election, such as larger scale terrorist events – as was the case in Mosul – that will kill and injure a lot of people and the increased assassination of moderate leaders. “Even though more violence is expected, I don’t think the market will take it in stride for very long,” he said.

Investment strategist Bill Rhodes of Boston-based Rhodes Analytics points to a couple of additional market risks related to the Iraqi election – the possibility it may not happen and a possible American invasion of either Syria or Iran, both of which have been widely reported to be allowing extremists to cross their borders to enter Iraq and neither of which wants a democracy on its borders. Either of these events, he feels, would precipitate a sharp market sell off.

Mr. Postin has long worried about what he calls “the Iraqi mess with no apparent exit strategy in sight.” He thinks there’s a chance the election will be delayed, especially if there’s another major terrorist attack in Iraq, which, he said, would signal “our progress has stalled and we’ll be stuck there for who knows how long and that more of our troops will die.”

Meanwhile, it should be noted that our Iraqi worrywarts appear to be the exception to the rule. Most pros I talk to rate rising interest rates, an impending slowdown in earnings growth, the tempo of the Chinese economy, and the price of oil as far more relevant market influences at this juncture. As Steve Goddard, president of the London Company, a $250 million money management firm in Richmond, Va., recently put it to me. “I don’t think about Iraq when I buy and sell stocks; I think about valuations. Iraq is already priced into the market.”