“It ain’t over till it’s over,” Yogi Berra said.

That’s also how a couple of crackerjack investment pros view the recent declines in the volatile and increasingly treacherous stock market.

Even though the Federal Reserve poured $62 billion into the financial system in the past two trading days to ease mushrooming credit worries, our duo — a hot-performing hedge fund manager and a well-respected investment strategist — see still lower stock prices ahead and offer legitimate reasons why they think the market decline is far from over.

When the Dow plummeted 387 points Thursday, Balestra Capital Partners, a New York City hedge fund with $210 million in assets, had nothing to complain about. It was up about 3% on the day. The fund, which has seen its annual value increase by an imposing 85% as of July 31, is enjoying the second best year in its nearly nineyear history.

Bearish on the market, Balestra’s money manager, Jim Melcher, sees “a significant possibility of a recession if we’re not already in it.” He bases this view on awideningofinterestratespreads, increasing financial strains for the majority of homeowners, and growing signs of a slowdown in consumer spending. He also notes that money is not only more expensive in sub-prime mortgages, but it’s rising in prime mortgages as well.

“The stock market really doesn’t understand what’s going on,” Mr. Melcher says. “If it did, it would be a lot lower. There are times to step back from the fray and this is one of those times. I would be an aggressive seller of stocks because their prices are likely to be significantly lower by year end.”

Given the recent big declines in stock prices, how can Mr. Melcher be so bearish? “Because I think the decline could be in its early stages,” he replied. Other than some major integrated oil and oil services companies, Balestra Capital owns no stocks. It does own gold futures and euros. The portfolio also includes derivatives, betting that sub-prime mortgages will go lower and spreads will widen on junk bonds. His best bet for investors in general: short-term Treasuries.

Our other pro, Fred Dickson, a former Goldman Sachs strategist, reckons “the world isn’t coming to an end” and says “we may have passed the point of maximum fear.” Still, while he says he thinks the mortgage meltdown won’t torpedo the system, and sees the shutdown in the mortgage credit markets easing up, he expects the credit and stock markets to remain turbulent for at least the next 30 days. Likewise, he tells me, “We probably haven’t seen the last bad credit market episode.”

To Mr. Dickson, currently the chief investment strategist of Northwestern regional brokerage D.A. Davidson & Co. of Great Falls, Mont., it means “it’s too early to aggressively buy stocks now. I would just hold on and ride out the storm.” That storm he’s referring to is his expectation that the Dow over the next month will likely slide to about 13,000 from Friday’s close of 13,239.54 before staging any meaningful rebound.

He says the decline will start in earnest on Wednesday, when most hedge funds will open their doors to allow for the traditional 45-day period before the end of a quarter, during which investors can redeem their funds. With many hedge funds having done poorly this year, redemptions are expected to be significant, which, in turn, suggests brisk hedge fund selling over the next 30 days to meet the redemption requirements. As a result, Mr. Dickson sees the strong likelihood of greater volatility and more triple-digit declines in the Dow in the days ahead.

After 30 days, during which the selling runs its course, he sees the beginning of a healthy rebound and “a window of opportunity starting to open.” Mr. Dickson says the opportunities will be most conspicuous in technology, health care providers, and the beaten-up energy shares.

His expected rebound is predicated on huge liquidity, with some $2.6 trillion in money market funds, an easing of credit pressures, and growing recognition that the American and global economies remain strong. He figures the Dow will wrap up the year at about 13,500, down from his previous 14,000 forecast.

“We’ve gone through the front wall of the hurricane. There’s a little more to go and that should be it,” Mr. Dickson said.

Meanwhile, the alarmists aren’t helping to quell investor fears. Just go online — it will scare the daylights out of you. Just take a gander at these dire Internet warnings that crossed my computer the past few days:

• “What’s ahead will be worse than the crash of 1987,” a precious metals newsletter writes, touting gold investments. It was referring to October 19, 1987, or Black Monday, when the Dow plunged 508 points or 22.6%.

• “Remember the crash of 1929; the next six months could be bloodier,” another newsletter on gold investments wrote. In September and October of that year, the Dow lost 40% of its value.

• “I don’t know the nature of the financial accident. It could be the collapse of a large hedge fund, a huge loss by a big player in sub-prime mortgages or a giant merger or leveraged buyout that falls apart because of the credit crunch. Whatever it is, it could trigger the biggest one-day loss ever in the Dow Jones Industrials, which we could see in the next 30 days,” a market commentator wrote. This harkens back to September 17, 2001, the day the market reopened after the September 11 attacks, when the Dow suffered its greatest ever one-day loss, 684.81 points, or 7%.

dandordan@aol.com