Lockheed Is Rated Top Defense Pick
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
It would probably be too much to expect every column I write to be greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm. Take last Monday’s effort, basically a favorable assessment of the defense industry, regardless of whether the Republicans or the Democrats capture the White House in next year’s elections.
“Sound thinking, but insufficient information” was the mixed reaction I got from the K9 Investment Club. “For the most part, our members thought you hit the bull’s eye with your bullish appraisal of the defense industry, although several of us believe defense expenditures will almost certainly be reduced if the Democrats win the presidency,” the club’s secretary, Annette Behrantz, told me in an e-mail.
“We also thought there was a real screw-up on your part, which was your failure to identify to readers your favorite industry pick and why,” she wrote. “Since we will be discussing this specific column at our next monthly meeting in October, please try to correct your omission before then and kindly be good enough to spell out the reasoning for your choice.”
The club, formed in 2004 by four elderly canine lovers, now consists of 11 members, all senior citizens and mostly all dog owners. Its portfolio presently consists of 29 stocks, with a maximum holding in each of 50 shares.
As I personally never recommend any stock, the requested selection comes from a pretty deft stock-picker, veteran investment adviser Richard Moroney, who is editor of the Dow Theory Forecasts of Hammond, Ind. He casts his ballot for the world’s largest defense contractor, Lockheed Martin. The company, which provides computer systems as well as such traditional defense products as weapons and aircraft, posted sales last year of $39.6 billion.
Lockheed has built much of its reputation on its planes, especially the F-16 fighter, with more than 3,500 deliveries over the past 35 years. Comparable sales are thought likely for its next generation replacement, the F-35, formerly called the Joint Strike Fighter.
America and seven allied countries have already committed to buy F-35s, and another six countries have expressed interest. Industry analysts estimate the lifetime value of the F-35 programs at around $275 billion, or more than six times the company’s current annual volume.
So far this year, Lockheed has enjoyed a steady flow of new contracts. These include a $2.4 billion U.S. Navy contract for F-35 parts, a $5 billion U.S. Air Force contract for 60 new F-22 aircraft for late July, and a $952 million U.S. Navy contract for avionics systems in August.
Not unexpectedly, per-share earnings have been flying, up 28% in the first six months. In July, the company increased its guidance for full-year 2007 per-share profits by $0.45, to a range of $6.65 to $6.80. Consensus Wall Street estimates project an 18% gain this year from last year’s $5.80 a share, but a more conservative 5% rise in 2008.
Based on the newsletter’s intrinsic-value estimates, Mr. Moroney reckons Lockheed’s shares are 24% undervalued from their current price of $101.19, which is modestly below the all-time high of $107.33. He further notes that at 14 times the 2007 profit estimate, Lockheed’s shares, which wrapped up 2006 at $92.07, trade at a discount to those of its six largest rivals.
His outlook for the stock, which he rates a buy: potential 15% to 20% market appreciation over the next 12 months.
An even fatter increase is envisioned by another Lockheed bull, money manager Tom Postin of Los Angeles-based P&W Partners, who sees growing international turmoil and the likelihood of increasing armed conflicts spearheading continued strong interest in defense industry stocks. He figures the Street’s consensus earnings estimates for the company of $6.86 a share this year and $7.20 next year seem about on target. “I think if you own Lockheed two years out, you’re looking at a $140 stock,” he says.