It’s one of Wall Street’s more spirited investment debates. Do you buy or shun those battered technology stocks, most of which have yet to recover from their 2000 bloodbath? As this debate rages, one of the brainiest hi-tech minds around, Michael Murphy, editor of the monthly Technology Investing Newsletter, is taking what he believes is a realistic look at the 2010 prospects of six of the country’s most prominent tech names.

When it comes to forecasts that purport to tell us what a company’s growth prospects and its stock price are apt to look like five to 10 years down the pike, I must confess I’m a downright skeptic, since such crystal-ball gazing is usually dead wrong.

Still, peering into the future is what Wall Street is paid to do, and rightly or wrongly, billions of dollars frequently ride on its predictions. Given his reputation, our tech tracker’s outlook merits a respectful hearing. In this context, Mr. Murphy said he recognizes growth of these core tech companies will not reach the 25%-30% gains achieved in their 1995-2000 run. Still, he notes, they’re the dominant companies in the dominant industries that will lead the way in technology in the years ahead, and he believes his six selections are ripe for solid 60%-180% gains over the next five years. Here’s his list, with some brief thoughts on each:

APPLIED MATERIALS ($15.81): By 2010, it will still be the largest semiconductor equipment company with a $21 billion sales rate. The company should make good use of advances in nanotechnology processes, many of which will have applications outside the tech industry and expand the company’s reach. Look for about 17% per year in annual growth, which should result in close to a tripling in the stock price in 2010 to $45.

CISCO SYSTEMS ($17.92): It entered the tech downturn as the dominant networking company with dozens of potential competitors, and came out with almost $18 billion in cash, an even larger market share, and only a handful of rivals left standing. Cisco has the cash and stock to buy any technologies it needs to fill holes in its product line or move into related areas, and by 2010, it should have taken full advantage of this capability, as well as fully integrate wireless networking into a seamless product offering of fixed and mobile networks. A 17% grower, the company should do about $25 billion in sales in fiscal 2005 and no less than $55 billion in 2010. Earnings will grow a bit faster, and the stock should get to the mid-$40s by 2010 for a 150% return.

DELL ($38.04): It’s another company that used the tech downturn to widen its lead over the competition and by 2010, it should still dominate the PC business worldwide. By then, it should have entered many more markets for commodity electronic goods, such as cell phones, and become the no. 1 or 2 provider of printers and printing supplies. Dell should see a 13% growth rate in sales over the next five years, which should get it to $100 billion in revenues in fiscal 2011. Earnings should grow at a faster pace, with per-share profits in five years topping well over $3. By then, the stock should have risen 70% from current levels.

INTEL ($23.02): By 2010, it should be the largest semiconductor company in an industry with $450-$500 billion in annual sales. Intel, which will be reorganized into five business units, should continue growing 16% a year, by 2010 turning itself into an $80 billion company.The stock by then should be $55 (based on $2.75 a share in earnings), providing a 145% return from current levels.

MICROSOFT ($23.99): It should continue its strategy of absorbing anything that seems to gain customer acceptance, while moving its huge installed base of enterprise customers for desktop and server applications to a rental/subscription model. As a pure growth company, though, Microsoft’s best years are probably behind it, but given its immense cash generation and the responsible use of these funds, the stock can still provide good returns if it’s bought under tight buy limits. A 12% growth forecast is likely, which, by 2010, would get it to $77 billion in sales and earnings of around $2.30 a share. That should support a $40-$50 price target, which represents a return of 66% to 100%.

ORACLE ($12.49): Software will be a major component of technology growth, and Oracle should grow earnings in the 10%-12% range, putting it at about $1.10 a share by 2010. If investors are willing to pay 20 times earnings for the fully integrated company (which includes last year’s acquisition of PeopleSoft), the stock should sell at around $22, about a 70% return from current levels. The only thing in the way of such a performance is the possibility that the PeopleSoft integration doesn’t go as smoothly as expected. In that case, Mr. Murphy said, “we will sell.”

A cautionary note: Keep in mind this is all one man’s opinion, that no one can be certain what the world, the state of the global economies, and the competitive arena will look like five years out.