With the price of oil skidding yesterday to a 20-month low of below $50 a barrel, the obvious question is: What next for those torrid energy stocks?

It’s an especially relevant investment issue since the direction of oil dictates the price of oil stocks, and since the July peak crude price of $78.40, oil stocks have also dropped roughly 10% to 25%.

Given such unknowns as the tempo of global economic growth, global tensions, the weather, and the extent of OPEC production, nobody can say where black gold or energy stocks go from here.

“It’s a tough call,” Oppenheimer & Co.’s veteran energy analyst, Fadel Gheit, said. Still, Mr. Gheit said he thinks more downward pressure lies ahead on both oil and oil stocks.

Taking note of the rampage in oil stocks, notably gains of between 30% and 40% a year over the past three years, Mr. Gheit said investors should realize the easy money in the sector has already been made and that future increases cannot be expected to match these record gains. “Oil stocks have never had it so good for so long, and now it’s back to reality,” he said.

Over the near term, chiefly March through May, he sees oil prices staying at the $50 level, largely reflecting the end of the summer driving season and reduced heating oil demand. In addition, he points to the price-depressing effects of slowing global economic growth, increased production outside of OPEC (namely the Gulf of Mexico, Canada, the former Soviet Union, and WestAfrica), and stepped-up global conservation efforts, including the use of alternative energy fuels such as ethanol.

To Mr. Gheit, these factors suggest oil stocks are vulnerable to at least another 5% near-term decline. As such, he thinks investors should take profits on any oil price spikes.

At the same time, he argues oil stocks, despite their sizzling increases, never really reflected $78, $68, or even $58 oil because investors simply don’t believe $60 oil is sustainable.

Since the drop in oil has largely resulted from the easing of international tensions, an obvious question: What happens if there are heightened tensions arising from unfriendly actions by the heads of oil-producing biggies such as Hugo Chavez of Venuezuela or Mahmoud Ahmadinjad of Iran, which would likely push up oil prices?

Mr. Gheit concurs that oil would certainly climb on such developments, but he warns, “you can’t invest on wacky notions from irresponsible heads of state” since any rise in oil and oil stocks would be invariably short-lived.

So what are the best energy stocks to own, if any, at this juncture?

Mr. Gheit favors a dual focus — namely a flight to quality if oil prices continue to head lower and to the laggards that haven’t fully participated in the hefty stock rise. For the quality department, he thinks the stocks to own are Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips.

As for the laggards, he favors four names, each of which, he believes, has the potential to rack up gains of 20% to 40% over the next 12 to 18 months. They are British Petroleum, Murphy Oil, Valero Energy, and Anadarko Petroleum.

Wachovia Securities is less enthusiastic about energy than it used to be. Chief investment strategist Rod Smyth notes that when West Texas Intermediate crude oil recently fell below $55 a barrel, it broke a key technical support level, prompting him to downgrade the industry to neutral. He believes oil and energy stocks are now oversold. But taking note of a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association that chances are higher of above-normal temperatures for much of the nation the rest of the year, Mr. Smyth observes that such an occurrence — if it came to pass — would likely reduce energy demand through the winter months.

Reduced energy demand, of course, would put renewed pressure on oil stocks.

The chief executive officer of Dune Energy, a Houston-based oil and gas producer, Alan Gaines, relates the recent decline in the price of oil to the warm weather. However, he views it as a short-term phenomenon and is convinced the thesis for higher oil prices over the intermediate and longer term — notably higher global demand, especially from China and India, and the inability of major oil companies to replace their production — is still intact.

“As far as oil prices go, the investment key,” Mr. Gaines said, “is that any surprise will be on the upside, not on the downside.” Over the next 6 to 12 months, he figures, oil will trade between the upper-$40s and mid-$60s. However, in the event of a supply disruption, Mr. Gaines said, “I’m with Boone Pickens,” the Texas oilman who continues to predict $100-a barrel oil.

dandordan@aol.com