Here’s a shocker! We could see another gusher, a jump to a record $60- to $70-a-barrel oil, and sooner than later.

The possibility that oil, currently trading at around $45, could hit $50 a barrel is now a commonplace view. Recently, for example, T. Boone Pickens, a former corporate raider in the energy arena, predicted that oil, up about 37% this year, would hit $50 before it reached $30.

Interestingly, only a few weeks ago when oil began to spurt to $40, many energy experts ridiculed the notion of oil trading in the $40-$45 range for any length of time and almost universally predicted oil would soon retreat to a range of between the high $20s and low $30s. Now, though, some of those experts are beginning to have second thoughts, saying maybe yes, maybe no.

The worrisome and provocative $60- $70 forecast, the highest that any corporate official or investment pro has yet made publicly and one that would play havoc with the economy if it were to become a reality, comes from a brainy energy voice out of the 1980s and 1990s.That’s Alan Gaines, a former crack analyst and investment banker in the energy sector and the fella corporate raider Carl Icahn relied on at the time to do the due diligence for his hostile bids on such energy biggies as Texaco, Phillips Petroleum, Marathon Oil, and Western Co. of North America.

Mr. Gaines – once described to me by Mr. Icahn as “the person you want to talk to if you want a feel for oil and gas” – is presently CEO and chairman of Dune Energy, a small publically owned Houston-based energy company primarily focusing on natural gas that’s 78% owned by Itera Holdings, Russia’s second biggest gas producer.

Mr. Gaines’s assumption of $60-$70-a-barrel oil is predicated on a possible supply disruption, which he views as a distinct possibility, arising either from the Mideast or from troubled Russian oil giant Lukos, which accounts for 2% of the world’s oil production.

“I don’t think $60-$70-a-barrel oil would be permitted to last because $40 oil in itself is sufficient to negatively impact the world economies,” he said. Mr. Gaines views $28-$35-abarrel oil as a more realistic trading range, but he doubts we’ll see it for quite some time because of his belief that a supply disruption/terrorism premium in the oil price – which he currently estimates at $12-$15 a barrel – is here to stay.

Our energy expert ridicules widespread fears of an oil shortage, asserting: “There certainly is no shortage; just look at the numbers.” In support of this argument, he points out that demand is slowing, falling to less than 2 million barrels a day currently from 3 million a day in March.

Likewise, he adds, supply now is outstripping demand by 2.7 million barrels a day. Further, he notes, OPEC recently said Saudi Arabia has 1 million barrels a day of spare capacity and that the organization itself would have up to 2 million barrels a day of spare capacity next year. Mr. Gaines also figures that Saudi spare capacity should rise to about 3 million to 4 million barrels a day in 3-4 years.

But what about a recent statement by the president of OPEC to the effect that the organization has no spare capacity. “That’s B.S.,” Mr. Gaines contends. “He seems to want to light a fire to keep the price high.”

So what should investors do about the energy sector? Mr. Gaines figures the big international oils, such as Chevron Texaco and Royal Dutch Petroleum, will show spectacular earnings over the next few years, and he views them generally as good defensive stocks because of their big dividends. “But I wouldn’t overweight them,” he added, “because for the most part they’re reasonably valued.”

Mr. Gaines, 49, who is divorced, has dated actress Cameron Diaz, and maintains a multimillion-dollar portfolio of small and mid-sized energy producers, singled out four of his personal holdings, mostly gas plays, that he especially favors. While they’re all up from where he bought them, he still thinks each has a good shot at appreciating another 25% to 50% over the next 12 months. The four are Ultra Petroleum, Vintage Petroleum, Chesapeake Energy and Comstock Resources.

Meanwhile, in case you’re wondering about the financial impact if the price of oil were to remain as high as it is right now, Standard & Poor’s figures it would add up to more than $36 billion annually in extra costs for American businesses and consumers. Further, Merrill Lynch believes that if oil were to move somewhat higher to say $45-$50-a barrel, it would shave 0.5% off annual GDP growth.