Okay, Dear Reader, Here’s Your Bull
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Teresa Angellini is not one of my boosters. In a recent e-mail, she wrote: “What gives with you? I just finished reading your column, and, as usual, it was bearish. Why is everything so black? My husband, Tony, and I have nicknamed you Dr. Grim because you are always so negative. You write like you believe the world is coming to an end and that the stock market is on the verge of collapse. No one thinks that way, but you. Why not be unpredictable and do an up piece for a change?”
Answer: Teresa, you’re wrong. The column is not a grim outlook of the world, but essentially mirrors the thinking of some pretty thoughtful people (both bulls and bears) whose views I don’t always share. I believe in giving the experts their say as long as it’s meaningful, sensible, and thought-provoking, and letting the chips fall where they may. In any case, since you want hear from a bull, here’s a bull – market guru Elaine Garzarelli, head of Garzarelli Capital, who doles out investment advice to 102 institutional investors with assets of more than $1 trillion under management.
Her latest thinking: “We seem to be in a corrective mode right now,” she tells me, “but it’s still a go for the stock market and a good opportunity to stockpile attractive stocks, especially on any sell-off.” What’s more, her indicators are predominantly bullish and she views the market as undervalued based on current interest rates.
Noting that the market could easily decline 4% to 8% at any given time, Ms. Garzarelli, who used to be called Go-Go Garz in the 1980s and early 1990s because of her unwaveringly bullish sentiment, nonetheless believes the ingredients are in place for a double-digit gain in stock prices, say 10% to 20%, before year-end.
How, I asked, does she figure that, given, rising interest rates, growing inflationary worries, and spiraling oil prices?
For starters, while Ms. Garzarelli sees further rate hikes, she thinks they’ll be nominal because she anticipates better than expected inflation numbers. Her outlook calls for short rates (the Federal Funds rate) to wrap up the year at 4% and long rates (10-year Treasuries) to finish at around 5%.
Her basis for good news on the inflation front stems from her view that productivity is in good shape. She figures it will be up 2%-2.5% this year, meaning unit costs will remain moderate. Her outlook for the core inflation rate: a puny 2005 range of between 1% and 2%.
As for ballooning energy prices, she thinks the economy can cope with the current mid-$50-a-barrel oil, but not above $80 a barrel, which she believes would slow things down and touch off a bear market.
Ms. Garzarelli thinks the economy is still humming and looks for this year’s GDP growth to run between 3% and 4% after Wednesday’s reported 3.8% gain in the fourth quarter. But she sees slowing growth to 2.5%-3% in the second and third quarters because of Fed tightening and the spike in energy prices, followed by a fourth quarter rebound to 4% growth.
The main spur to this year’s economy, Ms. Garzarelli believes, will be business spending, versus consumer spending, spearheaded by Corporate America’s strengthened balance sheet. For example, she sees capital spending up 11% this year and a roughly 5% increase in non-residential spending after several years of declines. While she expects both consumption and housing to slow, she looks for the industrial sector and strong exports to pick up the slack.
Chief among her top picks are Caterpillar, Home Depot, and an exchange traded Big Board fund featuring prominent construction companies that trades under the symbol XLI.
Of the view that the high-flying energy stocks are still undervalued because of the surging oil price, she favors a Big Board exchange traded fund (symbol: XLE) that includes a slew of leading energy securities, rather than one individual stock. “I would have at least 5%-8% of a stock portfolio in energy shares,” she said.
Tobacco is also high on her buy list. Its pluses: good earnings, a beneficiary of the weak dollar and enticing dividend yields. Her top selections are Altria (yield: 4.5%), UST (4%), and Reynolds American (4.7%).
On the other hand, she thinks investors should shun such sectors as electric utilities, autos, and auto parts, and household appliances.
What would turn our bull into a bear? Ms. Garzarelli points to any of three factors – oil prices above $80 a barrel, bond yields topping 6.5%, or a terrorist attack on American soil.
P.S. – You see, Teresa, not every column is negative, and please tell that to Tony.