Out-of-Style Wardrobe Is All Right for 2005

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The New York Sun

Barbara Rosenblum, a veteran West Coast money manager, was out of fashion last year. But she’s not about to go shopping for a new wardrobe because she’s convinced that what she’s wearing will be the hot attire in 2005. No, it wasn’t her mode of dress that caused her to be out of style last year, but rather her mode of investing.


Ms. Rosenblum, CEO of Rosenblum, Silverman & Spate, a 30-year-old San Francisco-based investment firm with $250 million in assets that is run by three women, is basically a growth stock manager, and growth stocks took a backseat last year to commodity and value-type securities. Even with the wrong strategy, the firm, which has a reputation for being patient and a trend-spotter, nonetheless managed to rack up a 2004 gain of 6.9%.


“Growth, where you can find it, will be in again this year,” Ms. Rosenblum predicts. She figures “value and commodity stock plays have had their days in the sunshine, and that based on valuations, they’re now in the last inning.” Another reason she’s gungho on growth stocks; their 2005 earnings performances, she believes, should double her projected 7% to 8% profit gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500.


To Ms. Rosenblum, three growth stocks stand out this year – Carnival Corp., the world’s largest cruise shop operator; Harrah’s Entertainment, one of the gaming giants, and Oshkosh Truck, whose product lineup includes heavy-payload tactical trucks for the Department of Defense.


Carnival is a play on the leisure boom, which Ms. Rosenblum sees as only growing, given the rapidly swelling population of senior citizens and their tendency to spend more of their money on leisure activities. Bookings are way up on cruise lines, she notes, and rates should rise, as well. Another plus, she points out, is the ability, through cruise lines, to see Europe in dollar terms, rather than through rising Eurodollars.


In Harrah’s case, the rising Eurodollar, versus the greenback, is also viewed as a catalyst since staying at home is cheaper than going away. Yet another plus: Harrah’s is in the process of acquiring Caesars, another gaming biggie, whose revenue per hotel room is less than that at Harrah’s. Given the acquisition, Caesars’ hotel rates, it’s felt, are likely to be increased, which should hike Harrah’s overall revenues.


As for Oshkosh Truck, Ms. Rosenblum sees it as a defense play, which she now views as a growth play. Her thinking here: “We’re dumping more money into the Iraqi war and we have to take care of our troops.”


Three other stocks favored by our money manager are reinsurance bigwig AIG and industrial conglomerates United Technologies and Tyco International.


Ms. Rosenblum also believes biotech belongs in every investor’s portfolio. But because of the high risk – namely, many smaller players may not make it – she strongly recommends the purchase of a broad-based index of biotech stocks, rather than just a single company. Her best bets: either Biotech Holders or the iShares Nasdaq Biotech Fund.


Overall, she figures her eight picks offer double-digit gains, say on the order of 15%, over the next 12 months.


In contrast, she sees only a single-digit rise for the overall market, which she believes is in for another roller-coaster year, namely, down in the first half and up in the second. She reasons that the market will continue to move lower over the near term, given the lack of clarity on such issues as the twin deficits, the war and the president’s plan to privatize Social Security. But once these issues are resolved or the air clears on which way the winds are blowing, investors, she believes, will once again focus on earnings-which should be okay-and that should push stock prices higher.


Speaking of the proposed Social Security reform, Mr. Rosenblum describes it as “a very bad idea” and thinks it’s “dead in the water” because she believes no politician will openly support a risky financial plan with no security net for millions of aging Americans.


The New York Sun

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