Pfizer’s Fizzle Could Turn to Sizzle

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The New York Sun

Boasting an imposing lineup of drugs that includes such well-publicized names as Lipitor and Viagra, you’ve got to figure that Pfizer, the world’s largest pharmaceutical company, has a lot going for it.


That’s how hedge-fund manager Leonard Mohr of Los Angeles-based MCR Associates felt earlier this year when he took a 38,000-share stake in the mid-to-high $30s. He figured the company had a good shot at hitting $50 before year’s end. He figured wrong. The stock, a dud this year, is down about 11% from its 2003 close and is currently trading at $31.53.


Aside from a weak 2004 market, Mr. Mohr, who has since dumped his stake, blamed the loss chiefly on John Kerry’s strength in the polls, which he also partly ascribed to the poor showing of the entire pharmaceutical sector (off this year 6.8%). “I thought Bush was a shoo-in,” he said. “I still like Pfizer, but I think it’s dead money until the election and probably dead money after the election if Kerry gets in.”


Some bulls, though, think Mr. Mohr is too harsh on Pfizer. They think it’s time to buy the stock and project a nifty rebound. Standard & Poor’s, for example, which is urging its purchase, sees the shares sprinting to $43, about a 35% gain, over the next 12 months.


At the same time, though, S &P is leery of pharmaceutical stocks, having recently downgraded the sector. One of its chief concerns: A Kerry victory in November could mean some price constraints on prescription drugs. It also believes a Kerry administration could lead to the importation of less expensive drugs from Canada. Further, it holds out the possibility that a new administration might authorize Medicare to negotiate with drug companies for cheaper prices.


Given those worrisome scenarios, how in the world could S &P possibly favor the purchase of Pfizer shares?


Its explanation: It likes the fundamentals and also believes Pfizer is the best-positioned pharmaceutical company in America.


The advisory service further expects the company to post above-average earnings growth over the next few years, reflecting a combination of strong expansion in key drug lines, new products, and cost savings from acquisition of Pharmacia. It also expects sales of cholesterol-lowering Lipitor, the world’s largest selling drug, to rise about 11% this year, boosted by new government recommendations calling for more aggressive treatment of elevated cholesterol.


On top of this, S &P looks for Pfizer to launch a dozen new blockbuster drugs over the next three years, and sees continued growth in many of its existing products. These gains, it feels, should more than offset lower sales of Viagra and Diflucan.


S &P pegs Pfizer’s earnings at $2.13 a share this year and $2.38 in 2005, and sees the company hiking its 17-cents-ashare quarterly dividend in the fourth quarter.


Another Pfizer bull is Richard Moroney, research director of the Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter in Hammond, Ind. Pfizer has one of the richest near-term product pipelines, he said. He also notes that drug stocks tend to outperform the market during periods of rising interest rates and continue to rise faster than the rate of inflation. His outlook for Pfizer shares: at least a 15% to 20% gain over the next 12 months.


Meanwhile, one Wall Street firm is in the midst of preparing a major report on the pharmaceutical industry in which it will be positive on Pfizer, Merck, and Eli Lilly, but lukewarm on Johnson & Johnson. The analyst declined to discuss the report, saying it had not yet been distributed to clients.


The New York Sun

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