Profiting From the Greenback’s Blues
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Bum tidings on the currency front: A trip abroad, costly enough, is going to cost even more.
One money manager recently back from London can attest to that. A cappuccino ran him $14 at a hotel restaurant there, which, incidentally, is $2 less than he paid in Moscow about a month ago. “Where did I ever get the crazy idea that Starbucks was expensive?” he asked.
What’s more, imported goods, as many shoppers find, are becoming pricier. In fact, some currency experts suggest that if you’re planning to buy something from abroad, sooner rather than later would be a wise strategy, as prices could rise an additional 5% to 15% in the next few months.
The reason? The dollar, which recently hit a new low that dates back more than 5.5 years, is headed even lower. That’s the message I see in just about every piece of investment research that crosses my desk.
One of the more illuminating research missives on the dollar, which details some diversified and novel ways to profit from the greenback’s blues, came from a relatively unknown New York City investment newsletter, Emerging Investments.
More often than not, when the dollar falls, Wall Street’s brokerage community is quick to bombard investors with a slew of recommendations of companies that realize a big chunk of their business abroad. The reasoning is simple enough. When foreign currencies are rising against a weak dollar, companies’ overseas earnings, when translated into dollars, are worth more. Coca-Cola often benefits in this respect.
The editor of Emerging Investors, Gregory Dorsey, says the greenback, despite periodic rallies, has much further to fall. The reasons are manifold. “We’re paying the price for long-term structural problems,” he notes, citing low savings rates, the burgeoning federal budget deficit, and the huge trade deficit. Rather than curtail spending or raise taxes, the government has become strung out on money borrowed from abroad to finance its spending habits, he says.
Adding to the dollar’s woes are faster economic growth rates — in a few cases much faster — in countries such as China and India. Further, Mr. Dorsey points out, the shrinking value of our currency means foreign dollar reserves of these countries are also worth increasingly less. The result is our creditors have begun to diversify their foreign reserves away from the greenback to protect themselves. It’s a trend, Mr. Dorsey believes, that’s likely to continue for years to come.
So how can investors make a buck from the sagging greenback?
Mr. Dorsey favors currency exchange-traded funds that offer one-stop overseas shopping, providing exposure to a number of foreign denominations. One favorite is the PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (symbol DBV). This is an index fund designed to exploit the tendency for currencies associated with higher interest rates to generate greater returns than currencies associated with lower interest rates. The G10 currency universe includes the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, Swiss francs, British pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, and Swedish krona.
The current risk to this fund, which he minimizes, would be a rapid unwinding of the so-called yen “carry trade.” This is where investors borrow in Japan at low interest rates on the yen and use the money to buy higher-yielding bonds elsewhere. A rapid unwinding of the carry would cause the yen to rally sharply, thereby hurting the fund’s returns.
Mr. Dorsey also spotlights a more aggressive investment approach to foreign currencies through the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish Fund (UDN). It’s designed to replicate the performance of being short the greenback against the basket of currencies that make up the Deutsche Bank US Dollar Futures Index. Currencies include the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.
While the dollar’s fall is seen continuing over the next several years, headed in the other direction as a result of the surging emerging markets is a broad range of commodities, among them crude oil, precious and industrial metals (such as copper and aluminum), and grains (like wheat, corn, and soybeans).
A good way to play this dichotomy, Mr. Dorsey notes, is by owning currencies of resource-rich countries such as Australia and Canada. The fate of their respective currencies — the Aussie and the Loonie, as they’re called, are closely tied to commodities, and the easiest way to pick them up is through currency-specific ETFs offered by Rydex Investments.
In particular, two funds — the CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) and the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) — invest in interest-bearing deposit accounts in their namesake countries. In return, investors enjoy any appreciation in that currency, along with modest income. Currently, the Aussie is yielding 5.7%, while the Loonie pays 4%. Fund distributions are made monthly.