Reaping Gains From Going Dutch
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

In covering the market, I’ve always been a sucker for those who make great calls, theorizing that if they’ve done it before they just may do it again.
Take the Safe Money Report newsletter in Jupiter, Fla. In early February, with Dutch financial giant ABN Amro Holding trading at around $32, SMR’s associate editor, Michael Larson, a former Bloomberg reporter, pitched the stock to subscribers.
Thanks to a series of events — a rising euro, strong earnings, and, most significantly, a sudden battle between suitors Barclays and a group led by the Royal Bank of Scotland to take over the company — ABN Amro’s shares subsequently shot up more than 50%, to $47.18, in just three months. “Call it dumb luck and good research,” Mr. Larson says.
Whatever the reason, our super stockpicker believes an “encore opportunity” — no, not another 50% gain, but a potential 15% rise over the next 12 months and maybe more — is a distinct possibility in another Dutch financial bigwig, ING Groep, a worldwide player in insurance and banking that trades on the Big Board at $45.10.
Mr. Larson, who also rates ING as a potential takeover or merger candidate, sees the company benefiting fundamentally from strong earnings and excess capital (soon more than $8 billion), providing it with cash for acquisitions and expansion into such high-growth areas as Russia, Eastern Europe, and Asia.
The stock, he notes, sells at only 9.5 times earnings — a lot cheaper than the 17.8 P/E ratio of the S&P 500 — and pays more than a 3% dividend. Other pluses: a rising euro, a strengthening European economy, and stabilizing interest margins in the banking business (the difference between the interest rates ING pays to borrow money and the rates it earns on its loans).
The Netherlands has been the home of great artists, the likes of Rembrandt, Van Gogh, Vermeer, and Mondrian. On its financial front, Mr. Larson figures ING can also be a super achiever.
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A $100 STOCK $200-BOUND? In 2005, a reader, Barbara Schrimm, inherited 4,400 shares of Fluor Corp. The stock at the time was around $50.30 a share. It has since more than doubled, climbing to a 2006 high of $103.85, and now trades at $101.31.
In an e-mail, Ms. Schrimm writes that she’s thinking of selling, in particular, she notes, because her cousin, a hedge fund trader who has been on a real cold spell lately, is telling her to hold on. “What would you do?” she asks.
Good news: Your cousin’s cold streak may be over, judging from the thinking of a couple of pros. One is money manager Marcus Raab, a principal of London-based Raab Associates, which has a modest position in the stock. “The company is in the right business at the right time,” he says. “I definitely wouldn’t sell, and I might even do some buying at this level. You have very good prospects, and maybe a year to 18 months out, you could see the stock trading at around $120 or $125.” Taking a longer-term look, over next four to five years, he says, “I think you’re looking at $100 stock on its way to $200.” Fluor closed last year at $86.25.
An active player in the current Wall Street rage — the energy business — Fluor is a leader in international design, engineering, and construction. It posted sales last year of $14 billion.
The editor of the Emerging Investments newsletter, Gregory Dorsey, views Fluor, America’s largest publicly traded engineering and construction firm, as a beneficiary of roaring global growth. Sparked by strong demand in a number of Fluor’s businesses, namely the oil and gas, industrial and infrastructure, and global services segments, the company’s 2007 bottom line performance should be impressive, Mr. Dorsey says.
He figures 2007 profits are on pace to rise around 35%, to $4 a share, followed by a 25% gain, to $5, in 2008. Longer term, he looks for the company to expand its pershare earnings at an 18% to 20% annual rate. That gives the stock, he points out, a price-to-earnings growth ratio of only 1.2, which is low for a market-leading company. His outlook for Fluor’s shares: a three-year move to $140, nearly a 40% gain from current levels.