We all have a tendency to say stupid things. About seven months ago, some members of the economic fraternity created a lot of noise with widely reported warnings that we were recession bound. Especially outspoken in this respect was New York University’s professor of economics, Noriel Roubini.

The chief catalyst for this recessionary outlook, according to our group of gloomy economic soothsayers, was an impending housing bust. The housing calamity, they said, would scare the dickens out of consumers, send consumer spending skidding, battering the economy. Now, though, with housing slowing, but not collapsing, the consumer still flexing his muscles, and the economy showing some vigor, you hardly hear the R-word anymore.

In retrospect, those recession forecasts now shape up as pretty outlandish, if not outright dumb. Last August, Mr. Roubini flatly predicted zero GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2006 (it actually grew 3.5%), and two quarters of negative GDP growth, which is equivalent to a recession, in the first half of 2007.

The jury is still out on his 2007 prognostication, but most economists are projecting a soft landing and GDP growth for the year of between 2.5% and 3%.

Mr. Roubini, the skipper of New York-based Roubini Global Economics, also blundered badly in his market forecast, predicting the onset of sharply falling stock prices in September, with the S&P 500 between then and June of 2007 plummeting some 1.5% to 2%. Following his forecast, about 10 market averages, including the Dow, charged to new all-time highs over the next six months. So he flunked on both the economy and the market.

How does Mr. Roubini explain away his atrocious forecasting and is he still sticking with his prediction of a recession? Not surprisingly, he doesn’t want to talk about that, refusing to respond to repeated calls seeking comment.

Another recession forecaster was the Safety Money Report, a monthly newsletter out of Jupiter, Fla., run by a veteran investment adviser, Martin Weiss. “We’re no longer looking for a recession,” associate editor Michael Larson tells me, although he thinks “we’re still in somewhat of a recession in housing.” He attributes the faulty prediction to explosive overseas growth and a flood of easy money for financing, which, he notes, have offset the effects of the housing slowdown and other economic woes. For all of 2007, Mr. Larson now expects the economy to muddle along because of housing weakness.

North Fork Bank’s chief economist, Irwin Kellner, had also raised the possibility of a recession, but now says “it’s not possible,” because long-term bond yields have fallen below the short end. He hedges somewhat, noting a recession could occur if the Fed were to raise interest rates.

Wachovia Securities’ senior economist Mark Vitner believes a recession is no longer in the cards, not that he ever predicted one. “You have strong job and income growth, and the Fed has plenty of latitude to cut interest rates,” he says. Likewise, he adds, housing is in the process of correcting itself and corporations are loaded with cash. At this point, he expects GDP growth of 2.6% this year, followed by a 3% gain in 2008.

Standard & Poor’s also rejects the notion of a recession, saying that recent economic data — namely sharply lower oil prices, a strong job market, robust non residential construction and historically healthy productivity growth — do not support such a prospect.