Scoping Out Trends for Retailers

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Most fashionista wannabes – or, that is – most of New York, can tell you what’s hip for this spring. Peasant skirts, the color salmon. Sparkly halter tops, animal spots – all are on display in trendy boutiques.


But what about next spring – or the spring of 2007? Does anyone really know? Well, Kathy Deane has a pretty good idea and makes a living being more right than wrong in assessing the future direction of fashion – surely a more perilous undertaking than forecasting long-term interest rates.


Ms. Deane is president of Tobe (pronounced To-bee), an outfit that has provided consulting and guidance to the world’s major retailers for the past 75 years. Their clients constitute an impressive Who’s Who in retailing, and include Saks, Bloomingdale’s, Gap, Talbots, Neiman Marcus, and Macy’s, among many others.


Tobe produces, among other thing, 38 “books” per year detailing the state of the consumer, fashion trends, new designers making a splash, the new looks in home furnishings, and other information essential to the retailers they serve.


These books are published as the Tobe Report, which circulates among the fashion industry, financial institutions and museums – indeed, anyone who wants to know what’s going on in the mind of the consumer. The company also publishes 11 TobeNext Reports, which derive hints about future fashion colors and trends from textile shows and the costumes showing up at trendy resorts.


In addition, the Tobe group puts out a shopping guide to New York that sells for about $18 and is full of inside information about what to find where. In the past, the company has issued a similar guide to buying in Paris.


The most recent edition of the Tobe report covers fashion prospects for fall and winter next year. Most of the pages cover recent runway shows in New York, and attempt to make sense of the thousands of items paraded down the catwalks.


The report also encourages store managers to be more imaginative, noting the fiercely competitive retail environment, details must-have shoes for next fall (peeping toes and purple appear essential), promises an UGG product that will satisfy the consumer’s seemingly insatiable appetite for more UGG and notes the addition of “adorable pockets” in bags and totes to accommodate cell phones. Who knew?


Tobe’s 30-plus professional analysts and consultants knew, having crisscrossed the globe attending trade and fashion shows and interviewing manufacturers, retailers, and the people charged with stimulating the all-important consumer. At the end of the day, Tobe’s goal is to help retailers increase revenues.


Tobe’s relationship with its clients is not limited to publishing reports. They are on an annual retainer with most of the major companies, available for insight and analysis throughout the year. The company also undertakes custom analyses and projects for clients, like other consulting businesses.


In the past, Tobe has been called in to completely revamp important retail companies. In one instance, the Tobe team presented a major department store here in New York with a list of 400 suggestions geared to improving the company’s efficiency and building sales. The changes ranged from how to maximize the space around the escalators, which was empty, to how to broaden the sweater line to draw in more buyers.


In other cases, Tobe has helped retailers perform what’s called a “styleout,” in which the company’s entire line is examined and analyzed for shortcomings. One line of stores was faced with tepid results, in part because they had misread their customer. They had collected data suggesting that their customer was young, but had failed to perceive that this particular young buyer dressed like her mother. Tobe took a long look at the product lineup, overhauled it, and ushered in a newly vigorous and appropriate line that almost immediately impacted sales.


It is not only the apparel industry that is subject to Tobe’s scrutiny. The group also reports on trends in home furnishings, toiletries, and other consumer products. According to Ms. Deane, apparel fashion runs ahead of nearly every other consumer product. Interior decorators who want to stay ahead of the curve look to color and texture trends in apparel as an indicator of what might show up in linens and household fabrics down the road.


An essential element in Tobe’s success is their discretion. They do not discuss one retailer’s plans with another, nor do they work for apparel or home furnishings manufacturers, which could immediately raise conflict-of-interest issues.


Also, though the report is sent out to many retailers, their clients are not concerned that they are all receiving the same intelligence. After all, retailers serve different segments of the market and different price points. Animal spots might mean Bill Blass couture at Saks and Echo scarves at Macy’s.


Ms. Deane likens the varying interpretations of the Tobe Report to playing the game of telephone. She concludes that individuals from store managers to department-store buyers will pick and choose the information they find most helpful in the reports


Ms. Deane, a graduate of Duke University, took over management of Tobe from her mother, Marjorie Deane, in 1991. Previously, Ms. Deane worked in Macy’s training program, and then joined her husband in launching Warehouse, an affiliate of the U.K. company. Her contributions to the success of Tobe have included the expansion into home furnishings and, more recently, into consumer electronics, which are becoming trendier by the minute. She has also emphasized the company’s consulting business, its most profitable line.


The company was founded in 1927 by Ms. Tobe, a true grande dame who worked early on at one of the old-line department stores. Miss Tobe’s instincts were so sound that even at that time she was paid thousands of dollars to divulge her views on future fashion trends. She was notable for being one of the first women to wear red nail polish, to decorate her brownstone with a modern look, and to employ a full-time chauffeur to drive her to hectic rounds of appointments and radio broadcasts. She was responsible for the Tobe motto “Front Page News Makes Front Page Fashion.”


So, what is in store for Spring 2006? Prepare yourself. You’ll be seeing, if not wearing, lots of crochet, safari suits (twin sets are going out – fashionistas at the end of the day judge them too casual), soft jackets, as a nod to the older consumer who doesn’t like to be bottled up in a straight, narrow jacket, more peasant skirts, vests and kimono coats.


Never heard of kimono coats? Maybe you need a personal shopper, in addition to the Tobe Report.


The New York Sun

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