It’s almost as commonplace as death and taxes – another gloomy article or TV commentary on an impending housing crash. The Internet is also in on the act, with references to the “housing bubble” spreading like wildfire.

It may be provocative and pique your interest, but as far as New York City’s housing market is concerned, forget it. The wave of fever-pitch real estate gloom and doom from the press, which chiefly stems from spiraling prices, bears no resemblance to reality, according to people intimately involved in the business.

“Let anyone writing one of those front-page stories about the coming housing collapse try to find a desirable apartment in the city at a bargain price; then they’ll discover what the real world is all about,” observes Coldwell Banker’s Elayne Reimer, one of the city’s leading real estate brokers.

There’s always some slowing at summertime, she notes, “but I don’t see any evidence of a major slowdown.” Nor, she added, echoing the view of several other brokers, does she anticipate one, given a continuing shortage of inventory. Likewise, she tells me, properties are still selling practically overnight.

Asked about some brokers’ concern that apartment sellers seem to be running into increased price resistance, Ms. Reimer said this may largely reflect the fact that a lot of greedy sellers are demanding ridiculously high prices, thinking anything goes in the current boom. “Well, it doesn’t,” she said.

Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuels, a leading real estate appraiser, also challenges the steady flow of negative housing stories. To the contrary, he said, the city housing market remains robust. What’s more, he went on, the major trends currently influencing the market – rising prices, falling inventories, declining mortgage rates, and a modestly improving economy – suggest it will remain robust.

Mr. Miller, who conducts quarterly surveys on city housing trends, serves up some significant statistics: Inventories are down 15% from a year ago, while mortgage rates have fallen more than a half percent since March despite the tightening of short-term rates.

There has been much discussion about investor speculation (such as buying and flipping), which has pumped up prices and heightened the bubble talk. In fact, the National Association of Realtors recently estimated that a record 23% of all homes purchased in 2004 were for investment purposes. Mr. Miller argues that the city is a different market. Manhattan, he contends, is an owner-occupied and second-house-oriented market, not an investor market.

Mr. Miller figures apartment prices, which showed double-digit increases across the board in the first quarter, will rise another 5% to 7% from those levels in the current quarter, adding up to roughly an annual 20% growth rate. He sees the least appreciation in four bedroom apartments because it’s the area with the most available supply.

If he’s right, prices, which look pretty steep, will get steeper. First-quarter prices, according to Mr. Miller, averaged $337,396 for a studio, $592,945 for a one bedroom apartment, $1,409,539 for two bedrooms, $3,792,282 for three bedrooms, and $6,662,761 for four bedrooms.

Interestingly, Mr. Miller notes that the rental market, which has fallen about 25% since 9/11, is beginning to show some signs of a rebound. (In contrast, the average sale price for a New York City apartment in the same period has risen about 65%.)

The heavy construction in the pipeline – which could temper appreciation – is about his only concern. But that, he pointed out, is at least a year or two down the road. At some point, of course, the rate of increase in housing prices will ease, but Mr. Miller disputes the idea of a crash. He sees any slowdown as more of “a price rust, rather than a price bust.”