Spending, New-Home Sales Cool Off

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The New York Sun

WASHINGTON – America’s consumers came off a buying binge and were somewhat less jolly spenders in November. New-home sales, meanwhile, cooled from a record high, while demand for big-ticket manufactured goods rebounded.


The latest batch of economic reports released yesterday, though sending slightly mixed signals, still painted a picture of a modestly growing economy, analysts said.


“Tie a bow around it – I’ll take it home,” said the president of ClearView Economics, Ken Mayland. “All the reports are indicative of a healthy economy.”


Analysts said they are still expecting respectable economic growth in the current October-to-December quarter, with estimates ranging from a 3.5% pace to topping a 4% pace.


Yesterday’s reports “are telling us this is still a gradual economic expansion that is not bursting at the seams,” said the senior economist at JPMorgan Fleming Asset Management, Anthony Chan.


A Commerce Department report showed that consumers boosted spending by a modest 0.2% in November, compared with a brisk 0.8% rise in October – the biggest since July.


Incomes grew by 0.3% in November, down from a 0.6% rise the month before.


Although consumers are still in good shape, high energy prices and a still-recovering jobs market are making some, notably low- and middle-income Americans, more cautious spenders, analysts said. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of all economic activity and is closely watched by economists.


The spending and income figures aren’t adjusted for price changes.


When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending in November was flat, compared with a solid 0.4% rise in October.


Another report from the Commerce Department said that new-home sales plunged by 12% in November from the previous month, the biggest drop since January 1994.


The decline left sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.13 million units and could be a sign that the highflying housing market – still on track for record high sales in 2004 – is losing some altitude.


The sharp drop came after a record high pace of 1.28 million units sold in October, according to revised figures. That pace, analysts said, was just too hot to be maintained. While surprised by the steepness of November’s decline, economists weren’t overly concerned.


“Given everything else that we think we know about the market, I’m not going to lay awake worrying about this one,” said the chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, David Seiders. Economists believe 2005 will see less lofty but still solid home sales, assuming mortgage rates remain well behaved.


Home prices, which have been soaring, settled down in November. The median sales price of a new home – where half sell for more and half for less – was $206,300, the lowest since December 2003.


In a third Commerce Department report, orders to American factories for big-ticket manufactured goods bounced back in November, rising by 1.6%. That marked an improvement from October’s 0.9% decline.


“Though there’s certainly much work to do in the New Year to make sure our recovery and expansion continue, this is a great way to end the year,” said John Engler, president of the National Association of Manufacturers.


The nation’s manufacturing sector, which was hardest hit by the 2001 recession, has had a sometimes bumpy road to get back on firm ground.


Orders for automobiles, airplanes, and other transportation equipment went up by a strong 8.2% in November, compared with a 0.3% rise the month before. But excluding orders for transportation equipment, other orders fell by 0.8% in November, the second straight month of decline. That didn’t cheer some economists.


In another report, the Labor Department said the number of new people signing up for unemployment benefits rose last week by 17,000 to 333,000. Even with the increase, claims were still at a level pointing to a labor-market recovery.


Federal Reserve policy-makers, feeling comfortable about economic growth, raised interest rates for a fifth time this year on Dec.14. That left a key rate at 2.25%. Thursday’s economic reports would justify the Fed sticking with its gradual approach to raising interest rates, analysts said.


The New York Sun

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