Hey, something is rotten somewhere. Many pros expected the stock market to roar in early 2005, given the traditional January inflows of billions of dollars of fresh pension fund money into stocks – which has yet to materialize – a growing economy, tons of cash on the sidelines, and lots of investor exuberance.

Instead, the expected roar turned into a squeak; the market is down so far this year, and as veteran analyst Ray Bloch of Raymond James puts it, “It is now sick and technically very weak.”

Alas, the analyst and some others see no turnaround from this year’s lousy start, adding up to what they think will be a bummer of a 2005 market. In other words, the beginning of the year is felt to be a harbinger of what’s ahead.

Mr. Bloch, noting that the market broke down when the Dow busted below 10,700 – it closed 2004 at 10,783 and finished yesterday at 10,556.22 – observes there is no relative strength in stocks. He believes that the prospects of rising interest rates and the weak performance of the technology sector are weighing heavily on the market and will continue to do so.

“Tech looks like death,” observes our bear, who adds that “you can’t have a healthy market without tech leading the way or fully in gear with other sectors. You need to see tech on the table and institutions buying it, which they’re not doing,” he said.

Noting, too, that reinvestment demand isn’t kicking in, Mr. Bloch expects a flat-to-down market over the next three to six months and predicts that any rally will eventually falter. “I don’t see the end of the world, but this is going to be a tough year in which to make money,” he tells me. Any stocks he likes? “I don’t believe in recommending stocks or looking for the needle in the haystack in an unhealthy market,” he said. His chief advice to clients: “I’d raise cash now!”

In his 10 surprises for the new year, Morgan Stanley’s well-regarded investment strategist, Byron Wien, also takes a dim view of the market. His outlook: “I look for a flat U.S. market in 2005, as higher interest rates, excessive investor optimism, continuing international tension, a declining currency, and an extended consumer offset a reasonably strong economy and corporate earnings improvement.”

Trust fund consultant John Harris, whose family founded Chicago’s Harris Bank, the city’s third-largest bank, views the market as a mixed bag. He thinks the market is probably okay for the next few months, what with confidence up, housing holding up pretty well, and interest rates unlikely to rise very much. But beyond that, he expresses concern, pointing to the uncertainty surrounding the course of oil prices and way-too-high personal debt. “You can only buy so many refrigerators and TV sets,” he notes.

The Iraq situation also bothers him. “We’re probably going to be there a long, long time,” he believes, “and unfortunately, we don’t have our own army of suicide bombers with which to retaliate.”

Current stock valuations also give Mr. Harris, a former history professor, pause for thought. He views the market as high and hastens to note that “the rule is you buy low and sell high.”

Another worrywart is Senator Lautenberg, a Democrat of New Jersey who is no slouch as a market forecaster. The 80-year Senator, who has accurately predicted a number of significant market moves, including the break of the “nifty 50” growth stocks in the 1970s, is also a founder of Automatic Data Processing, one of the great business success stories.

Mr. Lautenberg tells me “the market has disassociated itself with the reality of the economy,” which he describes as only fair. Of particular concern to him in this context: (1) The job market is still vulnerable to outsourcing, which is not about to go out of style; (2) Inflation is a growing problem. “If you doubt it,” Senator Lautenberg says, “just buy a house, gasoline, or food, and see for yourself”; (3) 45 million Americans lack health insurance; and (4) The trade and budget deficits look like they’re only going to get worse.

Iraq, especially the security situation, also bothers the senator, who tells me “we’re so over our head there.” He worries that American troops will be increasingly exposed to violence since “you need at least 53,000 policemen to help keep order, but there are only 80 Iraqi police graduates every six weeks.” Further, he observes, the Iraqi army is full of internal strife. He also wonders whether the Iraqi election slated for January 30 will ever be held. In any event, he said, “we’re going to be there for many years.”

Relating his concerns to the stock market, he sees “a fairly grim outlook” and thinks “it’s time for investors to increase liquid cash.” The 2005 market, he concludes, “may stay up for a while, but eventually, it’s going to decline.”