Stock Pickers Dish Up Ideas Over Dinner

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The New York Sun

A lot of Wall Street investing these days involves indecipherable algorithms, black-box program trading, and results that are measured with algebraic symbols. It is refreshing to find, as I did two nights ago, that there are still people who enjoy trying to outwit the markets the old-fashioned way.

On Tuesday night, I attended the Stock Pickers dinner, hosted by longtime Wall Streeter Andy Blum at the venerable Brooke Club. It was a refreshing departure from, for example, the Distressed Debt Conference I went to last week, which was hosted by DealFlow Media. While conversations at the latter focused on the alphabet soup of the asset-backed securities mess (CMOs, CMBS, etc.), the talk at the stock dinner was all about, yes, picking stocks. What fun.

There were 23 investors gathered by Mr. Blum, all of whom were expected to put forth their best pick for 2008. Last year’s results were distributed, along with an entry sheet for this year. It was ruefully admitted that the group overall had not done too well last year. On average, the picks were off 3%, while the Dow Jones was ahead nearly 5%. Some folks, however, did very well.

The 2007 winner was a fellow named Rich Conway of Lampe, Conway, a hedge fund specializing in distressed debt. Mr. Conway had picked DayStar Technologies (DSTI), which rose 113% year-over-year. (His company was reported to own 14% at year-end.) It was pointed out, albeit in a friendly way, that his achievement was a bit of a fluke as the stock was extremely volatile, and it just so happened that last year’s dinner had coincided with a major price swoon.

The pickers picked by Mr. Blum represented firms large and small; there were folks from U.S. Trust, Merrill Lynch, and Bernstein & Co., as well as a few who had their own hedge funds. There were men and women, some young, some not. Here’s what they have in common: They were old-fashioned stock junkies, of the sort you don’t hear much about anymore.

As we went around the table, with each person explaining his best stock idea, every other person was excitedly taking notes. It occurred to me that this was the sort of group that is essential to the real purpose of the stock market, which is the raising of capital.

Most, though not all, of the companies discussed were small. Many were struggling to bring a new technology or a new drug to fruition. These are the kinds of stocks that can make a fortune for investors — think the next Google or Amgen.

I also noted that, though there was much concern about the subprime contagion, the slumping dollar, and the trade deficit, and though people had the opportunity to recommend a short sale as well as a long position, all but one picker chose to be buyers rather than sellers.

What follows is a sampling of the ideas on the table, with (almost) no editorializing.

One stubborn fellow recommended Immunogen (IMGN $3.10) for the third year in a row. Last year the stock was off nearly 20%, but its champion was optimistic that this producer of “armed antibodies,” the preferred drug concept for the treatment of certain types of cancer, was poised to break through. The company is awaiting FDA approval for two principal drugs, and the trials suggest success. Though Immunogen is depleting its cash resources at an accelerated pace, it still has no debt on its balance sheet.

A self-professed value buyer recommended Star Scientific (STSI $1.70), a company that holds a patented process for preventing the formation of carcinogens (tobacco-specific nitrosamines) in tobacco leaf and smoke. The company is involved in an important patent suit involving R.J. Reynolds, which looks to be moving in its favor. STSI’s advocate noted that Carter Phillips, a top-notch patent attorney, had agreed to represent the company. Arguments were heard earlier this month, and a decision on the suit is expected by June.

Veering further afield, one of the investors nominated Saskatchewan Wheat Pool as stock of the year, judging it a good play on rising grain prices. This company started out as a wheat co-op in Canada, and has become, in the words of its fan, “a publicly traded Cargill.” Last year, the company acquired Agricore United, its largest competitor, adding substantially to revenues. The company has recently changed its name to Viterra (VT. TO).

Less exotic were recommendations of asset manager Fortress Investment Group (FIG $11.68), which is off 66% from its high of the past 12 months. A “misunderstood” company, according to its proposer, its stock currently yields over 8% and presumably will provide a leveraged play on a market rebound.

The same investor also likes aggregates producer Vulcan Materials (VMC $66), another cyclically depressed stock. Vulcan benefits competitively from the rising costs of transporting sand and gravel because the company has a large number of rock quarries situated near major building markets. At the same time, most communities are not keen to have new gravel pits dug in their backyard. In economic downturns, the government frequently increases spending on infrastructure projects such as highway construction, providing a lift to companies like Vulcan that have been hurt by the downturn in home building.

My favorite recommendation came from the son of one of the regular attendees, who is about to graduate from the University of Vermont. This young man’s pick was alcoholic beverage producer Constellation Brands (STZ $18.84). He says that college kids are moving away from beer and drinking more wine, which should help companies like Constellation. Out of the mouths of babes.

peek10021@aol.com


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