Stocks for Squeamish Investors
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

If you’re a “chicken” of an investor, whose ranks are swelling like crazy in the face of oil prices at nearly $55 a barrel, election uncertainties, no let-up in the Iraqi mess, and rising interest rates, this column is especially for you.
The fraternity of chicken or skittish investors – which now includes a bunch of apparently worried corporate insiders (see below) – is for those who want to be in the stock market but who can’t stand losing money and want absolute protection against day-to-day market volatility (which, as we all know, is pretty impossible).
Such worrywarts were in abundance Friday evening at the annual Bordeaux tasting dinner at the Four Seasons restaurant, where the erratic market competed with wine as the evening’s hot topic of conversation. Institutional broker Steve Neren of Fahnestock & Co. was one of those expressing concern, noting that he didn’t like the market and observed “if Kerry wins, stocks are really going to tank.”
Clearly, market uneasiness is everywhere. But uncovering non-money-losing and nonvolatile stocks for chicken like investors is as easy as picking the winner in the Kentucky Derby. “Steady Eddies,” it’s thought, might come close to fitting the bill, or, at the very least, help ease the pain in an increasingly choppy market.
These Steady Eddies, so designated by the research chief of the well-regarded 58-year-old investment newsletter Dow Theory Forecasts, Richard Moroney, are companies laced with consistency. That means they have consistent, solid revenue and earnings growth – not only over the last 10 years but over the last one, three, and five years, as well.
All told, Mr. Moroney is pitching subscribers on five Steady Eddies, each of which is viewed as a potential 20% to 25% gainer over the next 12 months. Their annual rates of earnings growth are impressive indeed – 14% to 32% over the last year, 15% to 30% over the past three years, 16% to 29% over the last five years, and 16% to 26% over the past decade.
Mr. Moroney kicks off his list of Steady Eddies with pharmaceutical biggie Johnson & Johnson, which has posted double-digit profit growth in each of the last 19 years. Likewise, sales have increased each year for 71 consecutive years, while dividends have risen annually for more than four decades.
Mr. Moroney figures J &J should post at least 14% profit growth this year, but a lesser 9% gain next year as it fights off the headwinds (generic competition and pricing concerns) that confront most health-care companies. Nevertheless, he adds, the possible slowdown already seems discounted in the stock, which trades at less than 19 times the consensus 2004 earnings estimate of $3.03 a share.
Another Steady Eddie the newsletter favors is Walgreens, the nation’s largest drugstore chain, which has posted higher sales and profits in each of its last 29 years. Walgreens will extend that streak to 30 years when the company reports its latest results for fiscal 2004, which ended last month. Results over the years have been fueled by growth in drug prescriptions, of which Walgreens has a 13% market share (equivalent to more than $400 million). Prescriptions, which account for nearly two-thirds of total company sales, jumped 17% in the fiscal third quarter, while prescription sales in comparable stores rose a brisk 13%.
Trading at 25 times fiscal 2005’s consensus earnings estimates of $1.49 a share, Walgreens, notes Mr. Moroney, is not a cheap stock. However, he believes consistent results (16% annual earnings growth over the past 10 years) should help maintain investor support for the stock as a long-term buy.
Rounding out the newsletter’s five Steady Eddies are Biomet, a maker of surgical implant devices, motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson, and MBNA, one of the country’s largest credit card lenders.
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Insiders turn tail: Speaking of chicken investors, corporate insiders clearly fit the bill. After embarking on a major buying spree in August during which they snapped up $180 million worth of their own companies’ shares, they’ve cut back sharply on September purchases, acquiring only $91 million of stock.
That’s the word from insider tracker Thompson Financial, which also notes the insider sell-buy ratio took a decided turn for the worse in September. Normally, insiders, largely reflecting the issuance of options, sell $20 worth of their companies’ stock for each dollar they buy. The latest ratio, $27 to $1, follows ratios of less than $20 to $1 in both July and August.
Some pros speculate that insiders’ less favorable month-to-month view of the market may well reflect their belief that the recent slowdown in the economy is more pronounced than is generally realized.