Stocks for the People

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun
The New York Sun
NEW YORK SUN CONTRIBUTOR

From an unhappy reader: “Dan, you lost me and probably most of your readers with the kind of elitist column you wrote today because you were out of touch with the real world,” Stephen Saks wrote in a recent e-mail.


He went on to write: “Not everyone who reads you is a multi-millionaire and has endless funds to sink into the stock market. Don’t ignore the common folk. You wrote about what is supposed to be the cheapest way to play the market and yet you recommend five stocks ranging in price from $50 to above $80. What ever happened to good values under $40? Why not a more sensible column that deals with the kinds of stocks most people in this country can afford?”


The recent column that riled my critic focused on five companies that a well-regarded monthly newsletter, Dow Theory Forecasts, said were cheap on a ratio of price to free cash flow.


Okay, Steve, for the common folk, actually for most investors, here are four stocks – one costing just more than $10, one in the mid-$20s, and two in the high $30s – that are rated as “good values” by another newsletter, a relative unknown, Upside, that boasts an enviable record and whose primary coverage centers on small and mid-cap companies.


Upside claims that its buy list since its May 1999 inception has gained 386.7%, excluding dividends and transaction costs. Over the same period, the Russell 2000 index is up 71.9%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is unchanged.


Upside’s good values – rated potential 15% to 25% gainers over the next 12 to 18 months – have all posted at least three straight years of per share earnings growth but appear to be modestly valued relative to likely profit growth. Brief summaries from Upside follow:


SECURE COMPUTING ($11.14): A leading provider of computer and network protection solutions, it’s benefiting from healthy order growth and product launches. December quarter earnings were up 42% and ahead of the consensus estimate, its seventh consecutive positive earnings surprise. Sales rose 18%, while new orders surged 33% from a year earlier. Secure holds a strong and growing market share, while a January acquisition should expand its distribution capabilities and strengthen its position in the government market. Healthy cash flow could be used to fuel foreign expansion, and consensus estimates call for a 12% earnings rise this year to $0.64 and a further advance to $0.77 next year.


EZCORP ($37.84): An operator of both pawn shops and payday loan stores, the company has delivered strong results, including a five-fold increase in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in the five years ended last September. Inventory available for sale in the pawn shops has risen recently, improving the selection of jewelry and general merchandise. Same store merchandise sales have also been climbing. Meanwhile, payday loan revenue doubled in the December quarter. Despite rapid growth in its store base – 68% of its 242 payday units are less than 18 months old – free cash flow has been trending higher. The company, which recently paid off its long-term debt, plans to open 115 to 125 stores in the current fiscal year.


GREENBRIER’S ($39.88): The company, which makes, repairs, and refurbishes railcars, has posted three years of strong growth in EBITDA. Its November fiscal quarter jumped 35%, and management expects further growth in orders for both intermodal and conventional railcars. (Intermodal refers to the conveyance of freight and passengers by more than one carrier or mode of transportation in a single journey.) With more companies moving production to lower cost areas abroad, particularly in Asia, further growth seems likely for intermodal shipments that must be transported from ship to rail. In February, the company, which has two-thirds of the intermodal railcar market, received a $100 million order, its largest ever, from American Honda Motor Company for Auto Max retailers used to transport new automobiles.


USA TRUCK ($25.89): The truckload carrier, which has a fleet of about 2,200 tractors and 5,700 trailers, missed consensus earnings estimates in its past two quarters, but underlying growth remains strong, reflecting solid demand for freight services. It is one of the few truckers able to recruit and retain a sufficient number of drivers, partly because it offers competitive compensation. Even so, USA Truck has one of the lowest cost structures. Last year, for example, its operating ratio – expenses as a percentage of sales – improved for the fifth year in a row.


So there you have it: four relatively inexpensive ways to play a red hot investment hand’s hottest ideas. Keep in mind, though, that every hot hand invariably cools off.


dandordan@aol.com

The New York Sun
NEW YORK SUN CONTRIBUTOR

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.


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