Two down, 15 to go; that’s this year’s bleak tropical storm outlook. Two years ago, Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc on the economy. By comparison, thank goodness, our two named storms this year, Andrea and Barry, have been relative powder puffs. But commodities tracker Sean Broderick cautions that the weather so far could well be the calm before a mega-storm, a prelude to what he sees as “another wild ride in energy prices this summer.”

While the five-month hurricane season, which officially runs between June 1 and November 1, has produced just two storms, Mr. Broderick notes that weather experts at Colorado State University have projected 17 named storms for the Atlantic this year. Furthermore, scientists say nine of them should evolve into hurricanes, of which five are expected to be of major hurricane status, with sustained winds greater than 111 miles an hour. They also believe there’s a 74% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on an American coastline. (The long-term average is 52%.)

Mr. Broderick, an analyst at Weiss Research of Jupiter, Fla., views more hurricanes as one of several threats that could drive oil and gas prices higher over the near term, the others being tightening supplies, the possibility that mounting troubles in Iraq could ignite new Middle East problems, and an Al Qaeda attack on American oil facilities.

Looking at the near-term outlook for oil prices, Mr. Broderick figures a lot depends on news events, which he believes are more likely to be bad than good. The only thing he sees that could drive down the price of crude is less consumption, but he rejects this prospect, he says, because the global economy, especially in China and India, is firing on all cylinders.

Given his concerns, he sees a strong likelihood oil will break through last July’s high of about $78 a barrel and streak to the $80 level over the next few months. At the same time, he expects renewed anguish at the gas pump, with the price, recently averaging around $3 a gallon nationally, headed to close to $4.

Speaking of gas, Mr. Broderick observes that while the latest numbers show rising stockpiles, “demand for gas is rip-roaring and we have such a tight situation in it that there is no margin for error.”

In fact, he says, the supply chain to the gas tank from the oil well has never been tighter. With refinery utilization at a 15-year low, Mr. Broderick said, plus higher gas demand, there is less gasoline in storage, and less of a cushion in the event of a shock to the system.

To our worrywart, it all signals an energy supply squeeze that he says is already evident. For example, the International Energy Agency sees global demand in 2007 totaling 86.1 million barrels a day. But world suppliers — with OPEC providing 40% of the world’s oil — are producing only 85 million barrels a day. Suppliers just can’t keep up with new demand, Mr. Broderick says. What about spare capacity? The analyst also sees problems here, noting that according to the IEA, spare petroleum capacity is capacity that can only be turned on for 30 days and sustained for 90 days.

Given the risky oil situation, he argues the estimated $10- to $12-abarrel premium in the price of crude is much too low. “It should be at least $20,” he says.

He also believes the run in energy stocks — despite a recent thumping due to rising crude supplies and some brokerage energy downgrades — is nowhere near over. He likes the Williams Companies and Patterson UTI Energy Inc. An exchange-traded fund, Energy Select SPDR, 33% of whose holdings are in two stocks, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, is another favorite. For diversity, he likes the U.S. Global Investors Global Resources Fund.

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CLIMBING CHINESE PRICES: Remember when you could buy things with a Made in China label that were dirt cheap? Forget them. They may soon become extinct. That’s what I’m getting from Carole Wren Inc., a New York City women’s sportswear producer for the discount trade with annual sales in excess of $50 million.

China is no longer as inexpensive as it used to be, Carole Wren’s president, Norman Wolf, tells me. He attributes this reversal to rising labor costs, a 2% to 6% decrease in the rebate Chinese suppliers get from their government for shipping goods to America (leading to higher prices at retail), and ballooning internal consumption due to China’s surging economy. As a result, Carole Wrenn, which produces 75% of its goods in China, is being forced to switch production to such other low-cost overseas manufacturers as Indonesia and Bangladesh, Mr. Wolf says.

dandordan@aol.com