Street Says Sell; S&P Says Buy
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
One of Hollywood’s big hits in 1967 – which you frequently see on TV – was an action-packed World War II movie, “The Dirty Dozen.” In it, 12 bad guys, released from prison to fight the Nazis, wind up as heroes, though many of them die in the process.
Wall Street could be in the process of producing its own version of the film. In this version, a team of Standard & Poor analysts, taking a contrary point of view, is pitching its own dirty dozen – 12 companies, interestingly enough, that Wall Street regards as sell candidates or the bad guys. Included here are such prominent corporate names as ChevronTexaco, Dow Jones and Johnson & Johnson.
The 12, all of which offer a fatter dividend yield (from 2.3% to 7%) than the market’s average 1.8%, are expected to outperform the market over the next 12 months, a period in which the advisory service sees only single-digit gains for the general market.
In contrast, S&P – whose analysts are said to have a better than average record in picking winning stocks – thinks its dirty dozen all have the potential to be investment heroes. To one veteran S&P analyst, that hero designation means a potential total return (dividends and capital gains) of 12% to 15% over the next 12 months.
Because of Wall Street’s concerns, many of the dirty dozen sell at discounts to their normal P/Es, which currently range from 10 to 32.7. Here’s a rundown of the 12 names, plus a brief look at why S &P’s team of analysts favors them.
Alltel Corporation: The shares of this rural telecom carrier trade below the P/Es of other telecom service companies, but Alltell deserves a higher multiple because of the company’s stable wireline customer base, steady operating margin and strong earnings.
ChevronTexaco: The oil and gas biggie is well equipped to participate in new growth opportunities in more remote parts of the world and has strong cash flow to support future dividend increases.
Constellation Energy Group: Given a dividend payout ratio of 35%, well above the peer group average, this utility has ample room to continue its string of annual dividend increases begun in 2002. The shares undeservedly trade below peer valuations.
Dow Jones: Advertising spending should improve in the coming months, giving it a boost.
Great Plains Energy: The electric utility boasts a payout ratio of 72% and its current dividend rate (5.9%) is secure.
Horace Mann Educators: The provider of insurance to teachers and school employees is moving in the right direction as it replaces outdated error-prone technology systems, improves its claims-handling practices, and refocuses on its core education market.
Johnson & Johnson: While challenging conditions confront J &J’s pharmaceutical business through the end of 2005, they should be offset by strong momentum in its consumer products and medical device units.
Loews Corp.-Carolina Group: Shares of this tobacco company should be accumulated for a potentially above-average total return because of the high 7% yield. Also encouraging are the company’s continued market share gains, particularly for Newport, its leading menthol brand.
Lubrizol Corporation: The supplier of chemical additives recently acquired Noveon, a specialty chemical maker. This deal greatly changed Lubrizol’s business mix, reducing its low growth lubricant additives segment to about 55% of total sales and expanding its industrial and consumer-related product lines. This acquisition should help boost overall growth.
Pitney Bowes: The provider of mailing equipment started paying a dividend in 1934. Since 1988, the dividend has been increased every year. Most of the revenue and earnings growth is coming from acquisitions, with five major deals completed since mid-2001. Revenues should rise 6% this year and 7% next year.
Reynolds American: The shares of this major tobacco company have been under pressure due to a Justice Department investigation and product-liability lawsuits. But the company has excellent revenue and earnings growth prospects in the year ahead, and the shares yield almost 6%.
SPX Corporation: Sales should increase 8% next year for this maker of auto parts, which should also enjoy rising free cash flow. The cash should be used to pay down debt, buy back shares and support the 2.6% dividend, which was initiated this year.
A note of caution: Since each of our dirty dozen is a sell candidate, it means someone believes something is awry somewhere. Keep in mind, too, that in the film many of them did not make it back alive. So playing with bad guys can be risky.