U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Shrinks in March

The American trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in March to $55 billion, the narrowest in six months and a sign the economy was healthier in the first quarter than the government initially estimated.Exports were at an all-time high and imports of consumer goods declined after a record trade gap of $60.6 billion in February, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington.“It’s a relief,” said James Glassman, a senior U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Company in New York, in an interview. “It does dampen the fears that there was something bad going on in the U.S. economy.” First-quarter growth was “closer to 4%” than the 3.1% the government estimated last month, he said.American manufacturers sold more consumer goods and business equipment abroad in March, aided by a dollar that has declined about 7% against a basket of major currencies in 12 months. A surge in payrolls and forecasts for a bounce back in retail sales last month also point to a strong second quarter.The good news on the trade deficit may not last long as Americans keep snapping up foreign-made televisions, electronics, and automobiles, economists said. The dollar gained after yesterday’s report, which may be a drag on future exports. And even with a slowdown in shipments from China, the trade deficit with that country is up 40% this year from January-March 2004.“The consumer has not gone away, and the fascination with imported consumer durable goods will continue,” a senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York, Chris Rupkey, said.The dollar rose to the highest in almost a month against the euro and increased against the yen. Versus the euro, the dollar rose 0.6% to $1.2808 at 1:30 p.m. in New York, according to currency dealing system EBS. The dollar rose to 105.71 yen from 105.56 yesterday.Lehman Brothers economists said the economy probably expanded at a 3.7% annual rate in the first quarter, following the March trade data. Economists at RBS Greenwich Capital, Bear Stearns & Company and Morgan Stanley also raised their first-quarter growth estimates.The trade gap narrowed in March even as oil imports rose. Prices climbed to their highest since November.Imports of all goods and services fell 2.5% in March, the biggest drop since December 2001, to a three-month low of $157.2 billion. Exports rose 1.5% to $102.2 billion.The dollar’s decline, coupled with improved demand, may help explain why exports of capital goods rose 3.4% in March to $29.1 billion and exports of consumer goods climbed a record $9.5 billion.Exports of civilian aircraft rose 27% to $2.4 billion. Boeing, the world’s second-largest maker of jetliners, has been increasing sales. SkyEurope Airlines AS, a low-cost carrier in Slovakia, on May 10 agreed to buy 16 of Chicago-based Boeing’s 737-700 aircraft valued at $880 million. The company also took options to buy 16 more aircraft.Exports of telecommunications equipment rose to $2.1 billion from $1.9 billion. Global demand for semiconductors and computer equipment may also be picking up.Imports from China slowed for a second month, and American exports to China were the highest in a year. The deficit with China narrowed to $12.9 billion from $13.9 billion. None of this is likely to ease demands on Capitol Hill for the Chinese government to change its currency policy.“After three months, China’s surplus is $42 billion, a nearly 40% increase from last year,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. “The pressures on China to allow their currency to float will only intensify.”China has pegged the yuan at 8.3 to the dollar since 1995, and critics say that keeps Chinese exports cheap. China’s deputy finance minister, Li Yong, said May 6 that the government is “working very hard” to revise its exchange-rate system.Harry Reid, the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate, says opposition from his party will block passage of a proposed Central American Free Trade Agreement. Senators Charles Schumer, Democrat of New York, and Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, call for tariffs of almost 28% on imports from China unless it ends the decade-old currency peg.Oil imports rose in March to $13.4 billion, the highest since November.Imports of consumer goods fell 6.8% to $32.7 billion. Imports of capital goods fell 1.1% to $29.6 billion.

U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Shrinks in March

U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Shrinks in March

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