Wall Street Looks Ahead to 2008

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Wall Street is abuzz with political talk – no, not on next week’s vote for mayor, but on potential presidential nominees in 2008. Accompanying it are hefty bets by some big Wall Street hitters.


Much of the heightened political buzz, it’s thought, has been created by the recent series of White House mishaps, among them the CIA leak; the indictment of a top aide of Vice President Cheney; the failure of the president to gain approval of his Supreme Court nominee, Harriet Miers, and the government’s lack of prompt aid for the victims of Hurricane Katrina.


With the president’s approval ratings seemingly shrinking with each new poll, one question is: Who will succeed him? Or more specifically, who will be the Republican and Democratic 2008 presidential nominees?


A good deal of political speculation centers on the 2000 race that never was. That was the year that Mayor Giuliani, citing health problems, withdrew as a Republican candidate for Senate, opening the door for Hillary Rodham Clinton to win the seat hands down.


But in 2008, the two are likely to square off in a run for the presidency, with the latest odds showing each favored to snare their respective parties’ nominations, according to Pinnacle Sports, a well-regarded offshore race and sports book that offers a variety of political wagers. Mr. Giuliani, it turns out, barely defeats Senator McCain of Arizona for the Republican nomination.


Other prominent Republican names featured in the presidential sweepstakes are Governor Bush of Florida, Secretary of State Rice, and a former secretary of state, Colin Powell.


Interestingly, some big bets are being placed by Wall Street types on the possible nominees. For example, one Big Board specialist, who won $150,000 in the 2004 election by giving 3-to-1 odds in June of that year that President Bush would be re-elected, is at it again. This time out, he has made two $75,000 wagers, even up, that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain will be the opposing candidates in the 2008 election. If neither is a party’s nominee, he loses.


This same specialist also made a bet with a hedge fund manager who believes Ms. Rice will be the Republicans’ 2008 nominee for either president or vice president. The specialist gave the manager odds of 2 1/2-to-1 ($125,000 to $50,000) that she doesn’t end up on the ticket.


Meanwhile, political speculation about 2008 was rife at a private dinner in Washington attended by seven Republican strategists that was sponsored by a notable contributor to the Republican Party. An official of a major mutual fund organization in Boston tells me that during dessert, each strategist was asked for an off-the-record opinion of who they thought would be on the Republican ticket and who would be the nominee for the Democrats.


On the Republican side, I’m told, five out of the seven chose a ticket of McCain-Giuliani. One picked Mr. Giuliani as the presidential nominee, while another gave that designation to Ms. Rice. On the Democratic front, six of the seven strategists thought the nomination was a shoo-in for Mrs. Clinton, unless she decided not to seek it.


Meanwhile, what follows is a rundown of the latest odds from Pinnacle on 16 Republican names making the rounds as the presidential nominee. In all cases, you put up $1 to win the specified amount. For example, odds of $2- 1 means you put up $1 to win $2 or a total return of $3.


1. Rudolph Giuliani ($2.83-1).
2. John McCain ($2.84-1).
3. Senator Allen of Virginia ($3.38-1).
4. Governor Romney of Massachusetts ($6.09-1).
5. Senate Majority Leader Frist ($10.06-1).
6. Governor Bush of Florida ($12.82-1).
7. Secretary of State Rice ($15.89-1).
8. Senator Huckabee of Arkansas ($19.68-1).
9. Senator Hagel of Nebraska ($20.03-1).
10. Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House ($33.19-1).
11. Governor Barbour of Mississippi ($33.72-1).
12. Dick Cheney ($50.80-1).
13. Governor Owens of Colorado ($50.80-1)
14. Governor Pataki ($63.40-1).
15.Tommy Thompson, former secretary of Health and Human Services ($69.06-1).
16. Colin Powell ($69.06-1).


If you want to bet that Mrs. Clinton will win her party’s nomination, Pinnacle’s book calls for you to ante up $1 to win $1.21 or a total return of $2.21. As for the outcome of the election itself, the Democrats are currently a slight favorite at $1 to $1.14. In other words, you put up $1 to win $1.14. If you want the Republicans, you put up $1 to win $1.04.


Clearly, though, the hot news from our offshore oddsmaker is that Senator Clinton and Mayor Giuliani are on a collision course to meet in late 2008.


The New York Sun

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