Wall Street’s 2006 Oscar Contenders

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The New York Sun

We all know who’s up for the Oscars to be doled out Sunday at the annual Academy Awards presentations, but what about Wall Street’s Oscars? Which stocks will take home the golden statues as the top performers of 2006? That’s something, of course, we won’t know until 2007.


For some thoughts on how investors can vie for Wall Street’s 2006 Oscars, I rang up Barbara Rosenblum, a principal of Rosenblum, Silverman & Sutton, a 30-year-old San Francisco-based money management firm that runs about $250 million of assets and focuses on growth stocks.


Last year, the firm managed to modestly beat out the major averages with a return of 6.75%.


Growth stocks have been out of fashion for roughly three years, with investors opting instead for value and commodity-type companies. Ms. Rosenblum sees a change approaching. “It’s our time this year,” she says, noting that many growth stocks are presently dirt cheap on the basis of their price earnings multiples. Likewise, growth stocks are seen as especially attractive if, as widely expected, the economy undergoes a second-half slowdown.


She offers four Oscar nominee stocks, a couple of which she sees showing gains of roughly 100%.


Her top pick is ON Semiconductor ($6.57), a maker of low-cost, high-volume analog, logic, and discrete semiconductors. Its components perform power control and interface functions in nearly every sort of electronic gear, from networking routers and cellular phones to household appliances and automotive braking systems.


“Like betting on a horse in the Kentucky Derby, it’s a long shot,” Ms. Rosenblum tells me. She figures if she’s right about a zippier economy, the company’s earnings will balloon, rising to $0.43 in 2006 from $0.21 in 2005 and on to $0.55 in 2007. She pegs this year’s sales at $1.37 billion, up from $1.26 billion in 2005.


Because the product is a semiconductor commodity, Ms. Rosenblum acknowledges there is a risk: namely, prices could collapse from oversupply. Still, she looks for a positive scenario, with the stock climbing to $12 from $10 over the next 12 months.


Another nominee is discount broker E Trade Financial ($25). This pick is based on Ms. Rosenblum’s belief that 2006 will produce a bull market sparked by a global economic boom. “Over the next 10 years,” she says, “you’ll see a billion people worldwide going from poverty to becoming consumers.” In the year ahead, she looks for investors to shift out of real estate and into stocks.


If she’s right in her scenario, she expects double-digit market returns in 2006, with the S&P 500 rising roughly another 9%, to 1,400. That would mean a lot more stock trading, which, it’s said, would be a boon for E Trade. Ms. Rosenblum sees E Trade posting earnings of $1.35 a share this year, up from $1.07 last year, with another rise to $1.62 in 2007. By year-end, she figures E Trade’s stock should climb to about $30.


Yet another Oscar nominee is AMR Corporation ($25.23), the parent of American Airlines. Pointing to AMR as the strongest of the majors, she notes it’s cutting costs and highly leveraged, and, if traffic holds up, it’ll be able to pay down its debt. It all adds up to a big earnings swing, which would be even greater if oil prices come down somewhat.


Speaking of a big earnings swing, that’s precisely what Ms. Rosenblum sees at AMR following losses of $5.88 and $4.12 a share in 2004 and 2005. She looks for earnings of $1 a share this year, $2.25 in 2007, and $4.15 in 2008. As a result, she figures investors will climb aboard the stock, which she believes could double in two years.


Her final nominee, a more conservative pick, is CIT Financial ($53.69), which provides financing for midsize companies and leases everything from rail cars to jets. “It’s a cheap financial services play,” Ms. Rosenblum notes. She projects earnings at $4.72 a share this year, up from $4.24 in 2005, and another rise to $5.17 in 2007. She also views CIT as a ripe acquisition candidate for a major bank. On a buyout, she thinks the company could fetch $70 a share. “But deal or no deal,” she says, “it’s a $70 stock in a year.”


The New York Sun

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