What a Van Gogh Bust Means for Sotheby’s
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Like many art lovers, Dianne Stohler is addicted to Van Gogh. Unfortunately, the master artist has indirectly caused her a great deal of financial anguish — a market loss of about $72,000 on her Sotheby’s shares.
Much of that loss occurred last month in response to Sotheby’s disappointing auction of Impressionist and Modern paintings led by a Van Gogh masterpiece, “The Fields,” which the artist painted about two weeks before he died in July of 1890. It was expected to fetch between $28 million and $35 million, perhaps even a lot more, but didn’t draw a single bid.
In response to fears of a slowing art market, Ms. Stohler, who bought 6,000 shares of Sotheby’s last year in the high $40s and low $50s, took a drubbing: The stock reacted to the poor auction by immediately tumbling 29%, to $35.54, well off its 52-week high of $61.40.
“My financial adviser is urging me to sell,” she wrote, saying the stock, currently at $38.29, “could drop into the $20s if the economy turns sour next year. I love art, I collect it and my gut tells me Sotheby’s will come back big time when all the uneasiness about credit, subprime mortgages and housing subsides. I am taking a serious loss on the stock, but I am inclined to hold on. Could you please ask some of your Wall Street experts what they think.” I did. Their answer: Hold on; fine art is not dead.
In fact, a Hong Kong money manager, Selwyn Ortz, says he thinks you should consider buying more shares with a two- to three-year horizon. “If there’s a recession next year, which is still up in the air, Sotheby’s will probably do nothing,” he says.
Still, he likes the stock. “The wealth effect is not dead in America and, importantly, it’s expanding throughout the world, which means,” he argues, “fine art has nowhere to go but up and any setback in this market is temporary.” Mr. Ortz, a principal of HK Investments Ltd., is putting his money where his mouth is. Although he has qualms about the market’s near-term performance, he more than doubled his personal Sotheby’s holdings during the recent dive. “Two to three years out, I believe it’s a $75 stock,” he says.
A prominent London art dealer, he says, told him he expects “The Fields,” given it was Van Gogh’s last known work, to eventually command a $40 million price tag. “Subprime mortgages, recession talk, and those billion-dollar writedowns are creating a lot of nervousness even among rich people,” the art dealer told him, “so you shouldn’t be shocked if some of them pull in their horns. It won’t last, but caution is the trend of the moment.”
Meanwhile, if you want to hang a Van Gogh in your home and think you could steal “The Fields” from owner Sotheby’s with a really low-ball bid, forget it. “There are no Van Gogh bargains,” a spokeswoman told me. “We stand by its estimated $28 million to $35 million value and think there’s a buyer out there at that price.” Maybe so, but Sotheby’s isn’t about to risk another sales fiasco, as evidenced by its comment to me that “we have no plans to offer ‘The Fields’ again at public auction and would welcome any bids by interested parties.”
An outperforming Hammond, Ind., newsletter focusing on small and midcap stocks, Upside, rates Sotheby’s among its best buys. Editor Richard Moroney acknowledges concerns about the health of the art market and the company’s guarantee or promises of minimum prices to sellers, but he hastens to note a recent partial rebound in Sotheby’s shares, reflecting strong demand at a contemporary art auction and strong results at an auction by rival Christie’s. Mr. Moroney considers Sotheby’s a “cheap stock,” given the company’s strong position and operating momentum. He says he feels Wall Street overreacted to a single disappointing auction. Sotheby’s, he says, seems capable of beating consensus 2008 expectations, especially if pricing remains favorable. Per-share earnings are projected to climb 68%, to $2.84, this year, but only 1% next year, to $2.87.
Trading at roughly 14 times estimated 2008 earnings, Mr. Moroney thinks undervalued Sotheby’s could rebound to as much as $50 over the next 12 months.
Some big-name investors, among them Fidelity Management, Vanguard, State Street, Goldman Sachs, and Barclay’s, appear to share his rosy view, with each owning anywhere from 2 million to 3.6 million Sotheby’s shares.
Still, the auction house, which generated 2006 sales of $664.8 million, has its skeptics. For example, following Sotheby’s disappointing auction, both JMP Securities and Banc of America Securities downgraded the stock. BofA analyst Dana Cohen summed it up, noting the art market appears to be slowing, with concerns related to softness in the credit and mortgage markets playing out in America.
A further sign of skepticism is Sotheby’s hefty short interest (a bet the stock price will fall) of 3.6 million shares, or 14.6% of the floating supply.
Meanwhile, if you want to impress someone with a memorable holiday gift, there’s a great Van Gogh going begging at Sotheby’s, but don’t expect any bargain.
dandordan@aol.com