White House Slashes Deficit Forecast to $296 Billion

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The New York Sun

WASHINGTON — President Bush touted new deficit figures yesterday showing considerable improvement upon earlier administration predictions, saying it shows the wisdom of his tax cuts.

Mr. Bush himself announced the figures — a task that for the most part has been left to lower-ranking administration officials in the past. The new figures show the deficit for the budget year ending September 30 will be $296 billion — much better than the $423 billion that Mr. Bush predicted in February and a slight improvement over 2005.

Mr. Bush said the improvement is due to tax cuts he pushed in 2001 and 2003 and his clampdown on domestic agencies funded by Congress.

“These tax cuts left nearly $1.1 trillion in the hands of American workers and families and small business owners. And they used this money to help fuel an economic resurgence that’s now in its 18th quarter,” Mr. Bush said. “Economic growth fueled by tax relief has sent our tax revenues soaring.”

Impressive profits and big income gains by the wealthy are largely responsible for the surge in revenues and, in turn, the deficit drop. However, the results are less impressive when compared to the $318 billion deficit posted last fall for fiscal 2005. Despite strong revenues, the high costs of the Iraq war and Gulf Coast hurricane relief have weighed on the deficit — as have higher interest payments paid on the national debt.

But when measured against the size of the economy — at 2.3% of gross domestic product — the 2006 deficit would be lower than the deficits of 17 of the past 25 years. And if recent patterns hold, this year’s deficit figure should improve even more by the time final figures are announced in October.

The deficit for next year would ease back up to $339 billion, reflecting war costs and cautious revenue projections. The White House predicts it will drop to $188 billion in 2008, but that assumes a sharp slowdown in spending on the Iraq war.

“The 2006 deficit may be a bit lower, but it represents a $600 billion swing from the surplus projected in 2001. And a deficit of $296 billion is still a large deficit. In nominal terms, it’s one of the four largest in history,” said Rep. John Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, top Democrat on the Budget Committee.

Revenues are running $115 billion greater than expected earlier this year, the White House said, reflecting particularly strong growth in taxes paid on corporate profits and income taxes paid by wealthier people and small businessmen who pay taxes quarterly instead of having them withheld by employers.


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