Why Stocks Are Ready To Pop

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Olga Knoegl, not one of my fans, just sent me another complaining e-mail.

“Dan, I know you think the end of the world is at hand, but I disagree and so I’m sure do most people, including your editor. Just ask him. As I have written before, you are much too gloomy. If you look at some of your recent columns, a number which I have saved, you will find you quoted so-called experts who have predicted a recession, a housing bust, the loss of a million jobs next year, a 15% to 20% decline in the S&P 500, a higher oil price and a war between us and the Muslim world. Why not shock your readers and interview a bull for a change. Surely, not everyone shares your grim view of the world.”

Okay, Olga, a bull you want and a bull you’ll get. First, though, it’s worth noting that those forecasts you mention are basically from well-regarded folks in the investment and economic arenas. It doesn’t mean they’re right, but it does mean their views, though not to your liking, merit a respectful hearing.

As for a war with the Muslim world, which came from veteran investment advisor Charles Allmon: That wasn’t a prediction by the editor of the Growth Stock Outlook newsletter; rather, he says, the clash of civilizations is already under way.

The bull you requested is noted market guru Elaine Garzarelli, whose firm, Garzarelli Capital, doles out investment advice to 110 institutional clients with assets well in excess of $1 trillion.

Her rosy view: “The stock market is a gift right now, and should be bought on any down days.”

Granted, there’s a lot of fear and negative sentiment on Wall Street, but there are no surprises; it’s all out there, she observes. In this context, she points to such well-publicized market concerns as a possible recession, a slowing economy, inflation, high oil prices, a major tumble in housing, the possibility of more interest rate hikes from the Fed, a slowdown in capital spending, a pullback by the consumer, the Middle East turmoil and the threat of more acts of terrorism on American shores.

But in the face of such worries, Ms. Garzarelli sees a number of significant positives that augur well for rising stock prices. Among them, she points to:

• A slowing economy, which, she says, almost certainly means the Fed is finished tightening. In fact, she expects Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, sooner rather than later, to make some public comment that the Fed’s current credit-tightening cycle is indeed over.

• The Employment Cost Index, which monitors total compensation in the American economy, grew around 3% in the second quarter, suggesting inflation is slowing.

• Mortgage rates, though higher than last year, are coming down somewhat, which should restrain a housing crash and diminish fears of a recession.

• The budget deficit is likely to improve, what with Corporate America making so much money that the government’s tax revenues have to rise.

• Oil prices seem headed lower, which should help ease inflationary pressures.

• Better labor costs are down the road, given a glut of labor both here and abroad.

The key, though, as Ms. Garzarelli sees it, is that “inflation and interest rate problems are behind us because of the slowing economy.” As such, she contends, “we’re in a new phase of a bull market that’s ready to break out on the upside at any time.”

Other market pluses, as she sees them: the extreme level of bearish sentiment, which traditionally is a positive contrary indicator, and the hoard of cash on the sidelines. Ms. Garzarelli also views the market as cheap, based on a P/E multiple of 14 times estimated 2007 earnings for the S&P 500. Given a 10-year Treasury bond yield of about 4.75%, the S&P 500 should be trading at a 17.5 multiple, which is her target for the index or about a 20% rise over the next 12 months.

Our bull thinks the market is resting now following a 7% correction in the S&P 500 in May and June. But that snooze, she believes, is a prelude to a lot of big steps upward, accompanied by the usual corrections along the way. So what’s the smartest way to play the market? Ms. Garzarelli reckons a good bet for an equity portion of a portfolio would be a selection of four exchange-traded funds broken down as follow:

• 70% in an ETF that mirrors the S&P 500, known as Spiders, and traded under the symbol SPY.

• 10% in Nasdaq-traded stocks, with the symbol QQQ.

• 10% in the Russell 2000 Index, with the trading symbol IWM.

• 10% in emerging markets, the symbol being EEM.

The last time I interviewed Ms. Garzarelli, about nine months ago, she picked a number of her favorite stocks, which, as a group, have far outperformed the general market. Her newest best bets, stocks that have undergone pretty sizable corrections, are Lehman Brothers, Caterpillar, Home Depot, Hovnanian, iShares Goldman Sachs Tech Index (an ETF whose symbol is IGM) and her top pick for the next 12 months, Legg Mason.

Any parting thoughts? “Just stock up on stocks,” she said.


The New York Sun

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