A Winning Tipster Picks Pawnshops

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

About five years ago, Philadelphia boasted what one of that city’s hedge fund traders described as the ultimate stock tipster. It was Madam Wanda, a flamboyant fortuneteller who plied her trade at one of the city’s popular pizza parlors. For $20, you got a peek into your future.

Equally enticing was her sideline talent. For a mere $15 a stock, you are told whether individual stocks in your portfolio will go up or down. Unfortunately, Madam Wanda’s tarot card readings were not what they were supposedly cracked up to be and her career as a stock tipster turned out to be shortlived.

Years ago, shoeshine men, chauffeurs, barbers, and waiters were also conspicuous tipsters, but most have long lost their allure, if indeed they ever had any, as stock forecasters. Even though we’re in a very jittery market today for all the reasons everybody knows, those army of tipsters are still out there in droves, eager and ready to dole out the names of supposedly surefire, can’t-miss, dirt-cheap stocks that have nowhere to go but up.

The problem, though, is a lot of these guaranteed winners are guaranteed dogs, nothing more than sucker plays for the impressionable investor.

So which tipsters should you believe? Since I’m a sucker for people who are right way more often than they’re wrong, it would seem, based on a sparkling track record, the stock picks of a little known monthly Midwestern investment newsletter, Upside, merit more than passing consideration.

The letter, which is a sister publication of the Dow Theory Forecasts, one of the more respected newsletters around, focuses on small and mid-cap stocks. Based in Hammond, Ind., Upside boasts a best buys list which, it claims, has increased a sizzling 383.8% since its May 1999 inception. That excludes dividends and transaction costs. In the same period, the Russell 2000 index has gained 63%, while the S &P rose 0.2%. So far this year, Upside’s best buy list is up 13%, versus a 6.2% gain for the Russell 2000.

So what are the letter’s current favorite best buys? Three top picks, all rated high-quality growers and each of which is pegged as a double-digit stock gainer over the next 12 months, follow.

Pawnshops are one of Upside’s favorite plays, or more specifically, First Cash Financial Services ($20.20),an operator of 370 pawnshops and payday-lending stores. Its return of assets of 15% rates among the top 7% of American companies, while its total assets have increased 12% annually over the last three years. With 43 new stores opened in the first half of 2006, the company is on track to exceed its target of 60 to 70 new locations this year.

Management forecasts opening an equal mix of units in Mexico and America.Late last month, First Cash acquired Auto Master, a privately owned car dealer and lender, for $34 million. The company has also raised its profit targets and projects 2006 earnings of $0.96 to $0.97 a share, versus $0.77 last year. For 2007, earnings are expected to jump again to a range of $1.25 to $1.30 a share.

Another of Upside’s favorites is Unit Corp. ($49.05), which conducts on-shore drilling of oil and natural gas wells and exploration and production activities.It has posted strong results, but the stock is cheap, the newsletter contends, because of concerns over lower natural gas prices. Rig day rates for contract drilling increased 65% in the second quarter, pushing up this revenue 66%, while operating margins in the segment more than doubled to a record high.

The company, on track to drill 235 wells this year, a 22% increase from last year, trades at only about six times estimated year-ahead earnings of $7.50 a share, well below both its five-year forward P/E average of 13 and its oil-field services sector average of 15. Consensus estimates project per-share profit growth of 48% this year, 14% next year, and they’re expected to grow 15% annually over the next five years.

Men’s Wearhouse ($35.14), a discount men’s clothing chain with more than 700 stores in America and Canada, is another of the newsletter’s favorites. In its latest July quarter, the company, excluding stock option expenses, delivered a better than expected 34% earnings gain. Results benefited from higher gross profit margins and improved tuxedo rentals. Men’s Wearhouse, a big user of TV ads, ranks in the top 20% of American companies in returns on equity, assets, and investment.

Its high returns are even more impressive, given its double-digit growth rate in total assets. Last month, management raised its projected earnings forecast for fiscal 2007 ending in January and now expects $2.42 to $2.52 a share, versus $2.04 a share in fiscal 2006.

The bottom line: If you’re going to bet money on a stock, know your tipster!

dandordan@aol.com


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